Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 021451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
951 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A weak positively tilted shortwave positioned over Kansas
continued to push south southeast this morning toward Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the shortwave trof
axis...west to southwesterly upper level flow was transporting
scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms across Central
Texas to far Southeast Oklahoma into Southern/Eastern Arkansas.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly to cloudy conditions and north to northwesterly
winds were common.

This afternoon...the shortwave trof axis is expected to continue
to sag southward across the CWA. This should push the remaining
precip south and east of the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Thus...will continue just slight chance pops for far Southeast
Oklahoma through 18z. For the rest of the CWA...low to mid level
ceilings should remain common over the region through the
afternoon hours before trying to scatter out behind the trof axis
this evening and overnight.

Continued cloud cover along with north to northwesterly surface
flow should keep temperatures below the seasonal average again.
High temps this afternoon look to be close to yesterdays highs
with 60s to near 70 degrees from north to south forecast. Morning
update will be to add minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/wind
grids and adjust sky/pop/wx grids based on the mentioned above.
The rest ongoing forecast seems to be handling well at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  45  71  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   70  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   67  44  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   64  41  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   62  38  67  43 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   62  42  66  48 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   66  45  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   61  41  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   65  46  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  48  72  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12



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