Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220529
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY 18-21Z IN EASTERN
OK...AROUND 00Z IN NW AR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAIRLY
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED UPPER SYSTEM GIVES WAY TO UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
COMING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG JET AT 500 MB FROM AROUND
SEATTLE INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 75 TO 100 KT WERE NOTED IN
THIS FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 TO 70 METERS WERE COMMON FROM
MIDDLE WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE JET SEGMENT. A
500 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY IS WHERE DETAILS BECOME
IMPORTANT TO THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OPTION ONE IS THE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT... END
OF STORY. OPTION TWO IS FAST FLOW REMAINS IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND DIGS OUT A NEW 500 MB LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF
THAT IS THE CASE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW IS PROBABLE ...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS SECOND SCENARIO HAS SOME BACKING FROM THE
CURRENT DATA... GFS... GFS13... SREF... CANADIAN AND SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
REGION. A MORE AGGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN MORE IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FAILURE OF THE OKLAHOMA SYSTEM
TO FORM WILL NEGATE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14






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