Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 261733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...REMAINING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT A
FEW SITES...BVO/FYV/XNA...HINTED AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS ON TRACK...REDUCED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
SOME. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE 60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING 70 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   64  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.