Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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165
FXUS64 KTSA 232305
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
605 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing isolated convection will wane after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing. Isolated to scattered storms are expected
Sunday afternoon w/ higher chances across SE OK and W AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A hot...unstable and uncapped atmosphere has yield isolated
convection across parts of far southeast OK and northwest AR this
afternoon. Have extended low PoP into the early evening...with any
activity diminishing with the loss of heating. Similar conditions
expected on Sunday...with yet another hot/humid day in store. May
see a little more coverage of showers/thunderstorms develop during
the afternoon as a weak wave drifts through central to western
AR.

The upper ridge will begin to retrograde a bit by Monday...which
may allow a weak boundary to drop into the far northern sections
of the forecast area. The possibility of bit more convection/cloud
cover will keep me from extending the heat advisory another
day...but later shifts will need to re-evaluate.

The combination of the retrograding upper ridge and subtropical
ridge will result in lower heights/mid-level weakness across the
area for much of mid-to-late next week. Expect periods of
showers/thunderstorms along with cooler/more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 101  79  99 /   0  10  10  30
FSM   79  99  78  95 /  20  30  20  40
MLC   76  99  77  96 /  10  10  10  40
BVO   75 101  74  96 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   73  95  72  93 /  10  30  20  40
BYV   76  96  73  92 /  20  30  20  40
MKO   75 100  76  96 /   0  20  10  40
MIO   75  98  75  94 /   0  10  20  40
F10   79 100  77  96 /   0  10  10  30
HHW   76  99  76  96 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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