Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 132329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. High pressure
continues to settle into the region and will allow winds to stay
light and variable overnight becoming light northerly through the
day tomorrow. Mid-to-upper level cloud deck will begin to develop
ahead of the next incoming weekend system.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest in the forecast will be fire weather
concerns, both this afternoon and again on Saturday, and rain
chances this weekend into early next week. The forecast going into
the Christmas holiday weekend still remains highly uncertain.

Gusty winds both ahead of and behind a frontal boundary are
raising fire weather concerns across portions of NE OK and W AR
this afternoon. RH values are down near 20%...so the gusty winds
and changing directions could cause some fire fighting headaches
if fires were to get started. After a couple of much cooler days
Thursday and Friday, strong south winds and warmer temps return
Saturday, and thus a return of higher fire weather concerns.

The upper ridge axis in the West has shifted west slightly, and a
compact PV max was dropping south over ID to its east. This system
will drop down the spine of the Rockies and down into old Mexico
by the end of the week, while closing off. The GFS and ECMWF both
agree that this system will eventually get picked up by the next
wave as we head into the weekend. The upper low will open up and
lift quickly to the northeast over the weekend, and will draw
moisture north into the south central CONUS. Our area will be on
the western fringe of the moist tongue, with eastern areas
standing the best chance for some light rain Saturday night into
Sunday. Rain chances end quickly on Sunday as the open wave lifts
off to the northeast. The details regarding the upstream system
still remain fairly uncertain. The GFS digs the system deep into
the SW CONUS and then ejects east over our area Monday night,
while the ECMWF is more progressive, and slides the system by just
to our north Sunday night. If the ECMWF verifies to the letter, a
light rain/snow mix would be possible near the KS border. The
slower GFS would be all rain based on its warmer thermal profile.

After a cool start to the week, temps should rebound back above
average toward the middle of next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  34  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   65  36  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   68  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  33  47  27 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  30  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  32  42  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  34  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  32  44  29 /   0   0   0  10
F10   68  35  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  37  57  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....11



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