Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 100252
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
952 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM ARKLATEX NORTHWEST INTO SW
KANSAS THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT.
00Z NAM SHOWS BOUNDARY AT 8590MB FROM ABOUT FSM-ICT BY 12Z
THURSDAY. CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND NORTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE GROWING
UPSCALE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. GOOD CHANCE THAT
AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE AND MOVE SE
OVERNIGHT LIKELY REACHING PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA BEFORE 12Z.
EXISTING FORECAST POP CONFIGURATION BASICALLY GOOD...BUT HAVE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN AREAS NW OF TULSA AFTER 09Z AS HRRR HAS
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING COMPLEX TO THESE AREAS
09-12Z. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SOME FOR 12-18Z THURSDAY NORTH OF
I-40. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ORGANIZED COLD POOL
CAN BECOME...AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIMITED. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS KS TONIGHT
EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES AROUND 10-12Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND WILL BEGIN
ITS NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS IS AN EXPANDING COMPLEX
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDINGLY.

THE RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.

AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT BEING AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY. THIS RAISES UNCERTAINTIES ON TEMPS IN THIS ZONE...WHILE HOT
TEMPS PREVAIL FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MARK A
ZONE OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN ABNORMALLY COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...AND SHOULD THIS VERIFY IT WILL BE A MARKED
CHANGE FROM THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  91  75  97 /  40  50   0   0
FSM   70  91  73  94 /  10  40   0   0
MLC   73  92  74  94 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   65  87  72  97 /  50  50   0   0
FYV   63  87  70  89 /  10  40  10  10
BYV   63  86  69  89 /  10  30  10  10
MKO   69  91  73  94 /  20  40   0   0
MIO   65  88  71  92 /  20  50  10   0
F10   71  91  73  94 /  20  30   0   0
HHW   72  94  73  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99









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