Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 192025
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Fire weather concerns thru Monday, as well as rain/thunder
chances/severity over the weekend with the next upper system and
cold front, will be the main points of emphasis for this forecast.

The warming trend continues today and thru the weekend. Temps as
of 2 PM have climbed well into the 50s, and will climb into the
60s and even some 70s possible by Sunday. The warmer temps,
combined with breezy south winds and favorable fuel conditions,
will raise fire weather concerns. The fire danger is higher today
than it will be on Saturday and much of Sunday, mainly due to
increasing moisture/humidity from the south. However, by late Sunday
afternoon the Pacific front/dryline is expected to surge into
eastern Oklahoma. Areas along and west of the highway 75 corridor
could see conditions approach Red Flag warning criteria. The main
question will be how low dewpoints/RH values get behind the
boundary, and can they get low enough before the gusty winds start
to back off as mixing ceases. The current forecast parameters are
not sufficient to warrant a fire weather watch at this time, but
this will need to be monitored. Expect another very breezy day on
Monday in the wake of the system/cold front, and with dry air in
place, another elevated fire weather day is looking likely.

Today`s suite of model data is no more aggressive, maybe even less
so, in forecasting any appreciable instability ahead of the
Pacific front/dryline Sunday afternoon and evening across E OK
into W AR. Data continues to suggest that the best chance for
showers/storms will stretch from SE OK into W AR Sunday afternoon
and evening, though some low chance could extend as far west as
the highway 75 corridor. With less than 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE to
work with, the prospects of any severe weather are low. With the
strengthening of the kinematic fields, there`s a limited risk of
damaging winds with any of the storms that get going. This
activity will shift quickly east toward central AR Sunday night.

Much of next week looks quiet, with temps above average for this
time of year. A storm system could bring another chance for
showers and storms by the end of next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  63  52  69 /  10  10  10  30
FSM   38  61  52  68 /  10  10  10  60
MLC   46  63  56  69 /  10  10  10  50
BVO   38  61  46  68 /  10  10  10  30
FYV   40  58  51  65 /  10  10  10  50
BYV   40  58  48  65 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   41  62  52  69 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   40  57  49  67 /  10  10  10  30
F10   42  65  53  69 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   43  62  55  69 /  10  10  10  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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