Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 060433
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1133 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected with light south winds developing
tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Going forecast is on track for tonight, with influences from
surface high pressure and clear skies leading to another night of
below normal overnight lows. No update is planned for tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure was positioned across the Central and
Southern Plains this afternoon as an upper level ridge was
building over the Central United States. Across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas...underneath the center of the surface
high...mostly clear conditions with northerly winds and temps in
the 70s were common. Mostly clear skies and light winds are
expected to remain common tonight which will help low temps Friday
morning to get down into the 40s to lower 50s over the CWA.

The center of high pressure shifts off to the east Friday which
allows for the return of southerly surface winds and warmer
temperatures to the CWA. These conditions should persist into
Sunday with high temps in the 80s for most locations over the
weekend.

A low pressure system...currently just off the California
coast...is forecast to move onto the West Coast Friday and into
the Inter-Mountain West Saturday. By Saturday a dryline is
expected to develop from the low through the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and into West Texas. Sunday...the ridge of high
pressure is progged to flatten out and push southeast as the upper
low moves into the lee of the Rocky Mountains with the dryline
from Western Kansas through Western Oklahoma into Western Texas.
By Monday...the upper low looks to finally move into the Plains
with the dryline approaching Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. On Tuesday...latest model solutions indicate the low
lifting northeast. This should allow heights to rise over the CWA
while the dryline finally loses definition.

In response to the mentioned above...shower and thunderstorms
chances look to become possible mainly near the dryline Saturday
as southerly flow transports moisture back into the region. By
Sunday...continued thunderstorm potential along/near the dryline
could reach parts of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...though indications are that much of the CWA could
remained capped through the day Sunday. Thunderstorm chances for
the CWA look to increase Sunday night with the greater chances
Monday/Monday evening as the dryline approaches. An increasing LLJ
Sunday night and an increasing unstable atmosphere over the region
will allow for at least a limited severe weather potential Sunday
night and Monday. Any ongoing activity Monday morning could
affect/limit the overall thunderstorm potential for Monday
afternoon/evening...depending on how much of the atmosphere gets
worked over and can re-destabilize during the day. Will continue
thunderstorm chances through Monday evening before the upper low
begins to push off to the northeast. With rising heights Tuesday
and the dryline becoming ill-defined...have removed pops for
Tuesday. Since the dryline and a cold front remains west of the
CWA...this will help to bring warmer temperatures into the region
through mid week...with some locations well into the 80s Tuesday.

At the end of this forecast...a second low pressure system looks
to move into the Northern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. This
should finally push the cold front through the CWA Thursday with
temperatures more closer to the seasonal average. Thunderstorm
chances look to be possible as the cold front moves through
Wednesday and Thursday.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   51  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   49  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  82  56  84 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   43  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   44  78  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   50  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
F10   52  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   52  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18



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