000
FXUS64 KTSA 190142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE NIGHT TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. STORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND HAVE BEEN SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AFFECTING NORTHEAST OK LATER. THE STORMS IN
THIS REGION HAVE BEEN MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND THUS TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS GREATLY REDUCED. THE STORM NEAR EL RENO LIKELY FORMED
ON OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY...OR
NEW ACTIVITY FORMED FROM OUTFLOW...WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTH
AND EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS MAY BE
MAINTAINED AWHILE AFTER DARK BY THE LLJ. AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN THE FARTHER EAST
THEY TRAVEL AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND INTO THE STRONGER
CAP. DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE BIG
SEVERE WEATHER DAYS FOR ERN OK AND NW AR.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  69  83 /  30  30  70  50
FSM   69  90  69  85 /  10  10  40  30
MLC   71  87  72  85 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   71  88  68  81 /  30  40  70  60
FYV   67  85  67  80 /  10  10  70  30
BYV   67  86  65  79 /  10  10  70  30
MKO   70  88  68  84 /  20  20  50  30
MIO   71  88  69  80 /  20  20  70  50
F10   71  87  70  84 /  20  20  50  40
HHW   68  87  70  88 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30