Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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202
FXUS64 KTSA 062030
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sfc high responsible for the recent pleasant conditions will shift
eastward w/ increasing southerly flow and warmer temps through the
weekend. Initial moisture return will be focused along a narrow
corridor to our west w/ the resultant dryline expected to become
increasingly active.

Any storms on Saturday will remain well to our west. Additional
convection is expected on Sunday w/ some indications of early day
precip within warm advection regime. However a more likely
scenario is dryline shifts a bit further eastward and again
becomes active late Sunday. These storms may spread a bit past the
I-35 corridor into NE OK before dissipating. Numerous model runs
have shown Sunday night convection developing over central TX and
spreading northeastward into the area by Monday morning. Should
this occur it will complicate redevelopment along the dryline for
Monday afternoon. Again, the most likely scenario will be for
instability to develop by Monday afternoon w/ the dryline nearer
the I-35 corridor. Sufficient shear will be in place to support
these storms spread eastward and maintaining severe potential
Monday through Monday evening.

Thereafter the positioning of sfc boundaries becomes more
uncertain. Tuesday currently looks dry behind departing
wave...while a weak cold front settles across the region. This
boundary is likely to become the focus for additional rounds of
convection for mid late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  86  62  80 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   55  87  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   56  84  63  80 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   53  84  61  79 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   48  82  56  79 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   52  83  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   53  83  60  80 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   57  84  61  79 /   0   0  10  40
F10   56  83  62  79 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   53  84  60  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



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