087
FXUS64 KTSA 081845
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across
northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends
from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is expected to continue in
the vicinity of the front as it moves east across the region. With
the airmass already extremely unstable and very little if any cap
in place, any storms that develop will have the potential to become
severe rapidly. Giant hail and significant tornadoes will be the
main concern with impressive deep layer shear above. The storms are
expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front
exits.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Most of the area will be dry on Thursday. However, there will be
a small chance of showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma Thursday
afternoon/evening as a storm system skirts the area to the
south. High pressure is expected to prevail Friday into Saturday with
dry conditions forecast area-wide. Shower/storm chances return
Sunday and continue into early next week as an upper level low slowly
moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Scattered to broken stratocumulus deck this afternoon across E
OK/NW AR. As mentioned in previous discussion, scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
across this area. Storms will primarily impact the northwest
Arkansas TAF sites starting late afternoon through early evening.
LIFR visibilities, strong and gusty winds, including hail will
be likely in the stronger storms. Behind front, lower clouds will
begin to clear from northwest to southeast tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  84  57  78 /  80  10  10   0
MLC   60  81  57  77 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   49  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  80  50  75 /  70  10  10   0
BYV   54  77  50  72 /  70   0  10   0
MKO   55  78  53  75 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   50  76  50  73 /  10   0   0   0
F10   55  78  53  75 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   63  82  58  77 /  70  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12