Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 262117
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
417 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across Central and Eastern
Kansas this afternoon ahead of a cold front sagging southward
through the Central Plains. Cloud cover associated with this
precip continued to spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures...even with the clouds...were in
the 90s across the CWA with heat index values in the upper 90s to
around 108 degrees.

Through tonight...the cold front will continue to make its way
southeastward toward the CWA with shower and thunderstorm
potential developing late tonight across parts of Northeast
Oklahoma. Latest short term model guidance indicates precip trying
to move into locations north of Interstate 44 after midnight
tonight. Temperatures overnight should again remain on the warm
side with lows in the mid to upper 70s for most locations as
dewpoints hold in the low 70s across much of the region.

The cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma during
the morning hours Thursday and should remain north of Interstate
40 for much of the day before trying to push southward overnight
Thursday night. Ahead of the front...afternoon temperatures are
forecast to climb again into the mid/upper 90s. This will create
heat index values to again reach into the 105 to 110 degree range
across much of the CWA Thursday Afternoon. Current heat headlines
look to be in good shape for Thursday.

A small thunderstorm potential will continue mainly over parts of
Northeast Oklahoma during the morning hours with increasing
chances during the afternoon hours across Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas. A marginal severe potential could be possible
Thursday afternoon along and near the frontal boundary as it
interacts with the daytime heating. However...wind shear should
remain weak which could limit overall potential with locally
damaging winds being the main threat. The greater thunderstorm
potential look to be Thursday night into Friday across the CWA
as the cold front sags south of the Red River.

Behind the cold front...cooler temperatures along with a drier
airmass is forecast to move into the region within upper level
northwesterly flow for the weekend and looks to continue into the
next work week. In response...high temperatures in the upper
80s/low 90s will be possible during this time period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  96  76  91 /  10  20  40  30
FSM   77  99  76  93 /   0  10  40  40
MLC   78  98  76  92 /   0  10  30  40
BVO   76  93  71  89 /  20  30  30  20
FYV   74  91  72  86 /   0  20  40  30
BYV   75  92  72  86 /  10  20  40  30
MKO   76  96  74  90 /  10  20  40  40
MIO   76  91  71  87 /  20  20  30  20
F10   77  99  74  90 /   0  20  40  30
HHW   76  98  77  95 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053-059-060-
     064>067-070>076.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ068-069.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>058-061>063.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....20



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