Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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379
FXUS64 KTSA 291450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
950 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The early morning convection that developed across parts of
southeast and east central Oklahoma has dissipated, with attention
now shifting to thunderstorm potential later today. Ongoing
convection in northwest Oklahoma associated with mid level
moisture advection and the upper jet circulation is making slow
northeastward progress, with the bulk of the current activity
likely to move into Kansas. A few cells have attempted to develop
east of the main area of convection across north central Oklahoma,
with none of these really taking root. It is likely that more
attempts of this nature will likely occur, with more success
expected as instability increases this afternoon and the main
upper support moves eastward. A general increase in thunderstorm
potential this afternoon, and possibly as early as very late
morning, can be expected across parts of northeast Oklahoma,
especially along and west of Highway 75. Thunderstorms may also
expand across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon as a disturbance
in north Texas moves into the area. Given temperature trends this
morning, will go ahead and leave the high temperature forecast
alone, but if thunderstorm coverage is greater or earlier than
currently expected, something closer to what the HRRR has shown,
these may need to be decreased on a future update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms may expand in coverage some this
morning...primarily impacting KMLC and possibly KTUL/KRVS.
Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys likely in and near storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convective complex moving across north central Texas will limit
warm advection/moisture return into eastern OK this morning. Most
of the operations models have had a poor handle on these storms,
though the HRRR in last couple of runs has finally acknowledged
their presence and, as such, has given up on the idea of a
developing complex in western Kansas that would impact parts of
the area later today. A few elevated cells trying to develop on
north flank and may see this move into southeast OK early this
morning. Probability of additional storms this afternoon will be
dependent on the eventual fate of north Texas complex, which most
guidance tends to weaken later this morning, but this is far from
a given at this point. Overall, the highest chance still appears
to be over the western half of the forecast area through tonight.

Additional weak and subtle forcing for convection remains in
play through Monday before an upper trough swings through the
northern plains and a more substantial jet streak lifts out of
Mexico into the southern plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. This
period will offer the highest chance of precip with the attendant
threat of heavy rainfall in some areas. Frontal boundary will
bring a drier and cooler airmass to the area by Thursday with
precip chances ending and below normal temperatures to end the
week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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