Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




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