Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59




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