Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN  CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE... RAISED POP
SOME THIS AFTERNOON LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMP SEVERAL
DEGREES. ALSO LOWERED PROB THUNDER SOME.      GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERALL...WITH IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS
REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A NARROW LINE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA
AND BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
44...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVING BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS ACTIVE
PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE DAYS WILL FEATURE SEVERE
WEATHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF
THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT FAVORED BY THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EXISTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAYS OF THE
PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER WISE...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE LOWER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE GREATEST RISK AREAS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
FAVORING A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION THAN THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST
IS ONE THAT SHOULD BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  53  78  54 /  70  20   0   0
FSM   72  56  77  51 /  90  60   0   0
MLC   70  56  78  54 /  90  40   0   0
BVO   72  48  77  48 /  60  20   0   0
FYV   69  52  72  46 /  90  60   0   0
BYV   69  51  71  47 /  90  60   0   0
MKO   72  54  77  53 /  90  30   0   0
MIO   71  50  75  50 /  60  30   0   0
F10   71  55  77  55 /  80  30   0   0
HHW   72  58  79  55 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20





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