Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR WILL BRING IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING KBVO...WHERE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. EVENTUALLY ALL
SITES WILL TREND TOWARD VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MOST SLEET FROM THE MORNING FORECAST.
LATEST RADAR AND ESPECIALLY DUAL POL CC AND SURFACE REPORTS
CONFIRM MOST PCPN WEST OF I-44 LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. STILL
ANTICIPATE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THE
CURRENT TIME BEING BETWEEN INTERSTATES 44 AND 40.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY...AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND
TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN END. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MIXTURE
ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. SNOW WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY
THE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE COLD AIRMASS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. A BRIEF
WARMUP WILL OCCUR MONDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
LAG THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE CONSISTENT MESSAGE IS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
RESULTING IN MAINLY A RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EVENT DEPENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM +1 TO +4 C THURSDAY EVENING AND +2 TO +7 C FRIDAY MORNING ON
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL PRECLUDE SNOW. TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT
THIS IS TOO FAR AWAY TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

COLDER AIR WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. AS OF NOW...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG DEAL BUT STAY TUNED.

STAYED NEAR THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  23  42  23 /  80  10   0   0
FSM   45  31  45  28 /  70  40  10   0
MLC   38  26  44  26 /  70  30   0   0
BVO   38  18  41  20 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   39  24  42  22 /  70  40   0   0
BYV   41  25  41  23 /  70  40  10  10
MKO   37  25  43  24 /  80  20   0   0
MIO   39  22  40  22 /  70  10   0   0
F10   37  24  43  25 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   45  30  47  28 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





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