Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 112158
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
358 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire weather will persist for the rest of this afternoon
and into the early evening. A cold front will continue to push
southeast across the region. Gusty northwest winds have developed
in associated with this frontal passage, with wind gusts as high
as 25-30 miles per hour. Ahead of this front, unseasonably warm
temperatures along with very low humidity levels have persisted,
creating high fire spread potential across much of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Limited amounts of precipitation
across the area of late, along with increased cured vegetation,
serve to only exacerbate the fire weather potential. Winds are
expected to subside this evening, and humidity levels should
increase, both diminishing the fire weather threat for tonight.

Behind the cold front cooler air will spread into the region for
tonight and Tuesday, however the cool down will be short lived as
winds will quickly shift back out of the south Tuesday night.
Temperatures will once again warm above normal for mid December on
Wednesday, with highs reaching into the 60s across much of the
forecast area.

A second upper level wave will pass over the Central Plains,
dragging another dry cold front across the region late Wednesday,
once again dropping temperatures back near normal for the end of
the work week. All of these systems look to remain dry, as
moisture across the region is limited.

Looking into the extended, heights are forecast to rise across the
Southern Plains next weekend, along with increasing southerly
flow. Temperatures will likely warm back into the 60s, perhaps
even near 70 degrees Saturday. This paired with breezy southerly
winds will likely create elevated fire weather danger and fire
spread potential for Saturday. The upper level flow pattern will
also become more zonal as the persistent ridge over the western
portion of the nation finally breaks down. This may allow for the
transport of moisture back into the area enough to trigger some
precipitation past the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  49  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   34  49  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   34  50  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   28  49  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  43  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  42  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  48  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   27  44  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
F10   32  50  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   37  52  33  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>064-
     067>069.

AR...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16



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