Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200255
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
855 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front looks to have stalled this evening along a line
from Norman, OK to Tulsa, OK to just north of Joplin, MO. Recent
Oklahoma mesonet wind observations are showing slight wind shifts
back around to more southerly as front appears to be regressing
northward a bit. Hi-res model solutions having a hard time trying
to place the front and the question tonight will be how far north
it will retreat overnight. Current thinking is that models may be
overly aggressive in placing the front too far north by Tuesday
morning. Increasing WWA will allow another northward surge of
moisture overnight allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue, and gradually increase in coverage through the morning
hours. If front continues to push northward to the KS/OK state
line, temperatures should be warm enough that no freezing
precipitation should occur. However, if front remains where it is,
will have to keep an eye on our CWAs northwest counties.

Given the frontal position and sharp temperature and wind
gradient, several adjustments were made to account for this and
the retreat northward overnight. Other adjustments were made to
account for near-term precipitation trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  67  27  39 /  90 100  30  30
FSM   63  74  45  46 /  90  90  90  70
MLC   65  72  36  40 /  90 100  70  50
BVO   46  64  24  37 /  80  90  20  20
FYV   62  71  35  40 /  90 100  90  60
BYV   62  72  31  37 /  90  90 100  60
MKO   62  69  34  40 /  90 100  70  30
MIO   62  67  27  37 /  90 100  60  20
F10   64  68  32  38 /  90 100  40  30
HHW   65  71  44  48 / 100 100 100  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Tuesday through late Tuesday night for
     OKZ049-053-058-062-063-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Tuesday through late Tuesday night for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11



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