Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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095
FXUS64 KTSA 231631
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface ridge axis continues to slide south of the area resulting
in a light downslope component to the winds...generally 10 knots
or less. This will allow temperatures to be considerably warmer
compared to yesterday, which is supported by 12z sounding at OUN.
Forecast is trending well at the moment, though a few spots may
end up a degree or two above forecast highs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through
the entire period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

.HIGH FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
Cold start this morning before warming trend over the next couple
of days ahead of cold front which is expected Friday night. Strong
southerly winds coupled with limited moisture return will create
an elevated fire danger threat Friday afternoon as RH values fall
into the 30-35 percent range. A few locations could reach red flag
criteria and subsequent watches/warnings may be required as the specific
area becomes more certain. Nice/mild fall weather anticipated for
the Thanksgiving holiday weekend as surface ridge settles over
the region.

Fire weather will again become a significant concern as unseasonably
warm conditions develop on Monday with gusty winds in the 30 to
35 mph range. Afternoon minimum RH values will be a little higher
(around 40 percent), however this will likely be offset by the
stronger winds. Region remains extremely dry with little to no
rainfall over the past month and therefore any fires that start
could quickly spread out of control given the cured vegetation/fuel
loads.

Model solutions have diverged concerning frontal timing with
system Tuesday into Wednesday with GFS faster/more progressive
with cold front. ECMWF ensembles are a little quicker with upper
wave compared to the deterministic solution, so a blend between
faster GFS/slower ECMWF seems reasonable. Precipitation chances
still appear limited, especially if front moves through quicker on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  45  72  45 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   61  39  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   64  41  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   66  36  72  41 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   60  34  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   61  41  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   62  39  71  45 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   61  39  68  44 /   0   0   0  10
F10   65  42  72  45 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   61  38  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22



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