Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 091125
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   47  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  22  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  28  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  30  62  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...23


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