Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  69  88  71 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   83  67  86  69 /  50  10  10  10
MLC   84  68  87  69 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   81  67  88  67 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   78  63  83  65 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   79  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   81  68  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   78  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   81  69  86  69 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   87  68  87  68 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07




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