Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 252352
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The backside of an upper level low pressure system will continue
to push MVFR ceilings across Northeast Oklahoma and much of
Northwest Arkansas into the overnight hours before exiting the
region early Sunday morning. Across Southeast Oklahoma into West
Central Arkansas...ceilings have already begun to break up and
lift back to VFR. These conditions should continue through the
night...with some possible fog maybe developing early Sunday
morning within the Arkansas River Valley. Parts of Northeast
Oklahoma also look to begin to clear out late tonight with some
patchy fog maybe possible as well. During the day Sunday...VFR
conditions and winds returning out of the south to southeast are
expected ahead of the next approaching upper low. Precip chances
could be possible over Northeast Oklahoma toward the end of the
TAF period and will introduce prob30 groups to BVO/TUL/RVS.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
Upper level low currently over southwest Missouri continues to bring some
light rain to far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
This activity is expected to end by 00z. The clouds associated with this
upper level low and related surface feature are forecast to slowly depart
the area Tonight. Could see some fog late Tonight in areas that do clear out.
With another upper low lurking over southern Nevada this Afternoon, the chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Sunday into Sunday night as this feature
sweeps across the plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon across
central Oklahoma in the vicinity of the dryline. This activity is expected to move
into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday evening/night. Some of the storms
could be strong to severe with large hail and gusty winds the concern. The severe potential
is expected to linger into the overnight hours with elevated instability becoming more
favorable as the low level jet intensifies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be possible across eastern portions of the forecast area through Monday
before the storm system departs the area.
Another storm system is expected mid to late week. Along with the threat for strong
to severe storms Wednesday, Locally heavy rain will also be possible. Friday is expected
to be dry with showers and thunderstorms chances ramping up again over the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 43 75 53 68 / 0 30 80 20
FSM 47 80 58 76 / 0 10 80 40
MLC 45 80 59 74 / 0 20 80 10
BVO 38 74 50 65 / 0 20 80 20
FYV 42 71 54 69 / 0 10 80 50
BYV 43 69 55 71 / 10 10 80 70
MKO 43 76 57 70 / 0 20 80 20
MIO 41 71 54 66 / 10 10 80 50
F10 44 77 56 70 / 0 30 80 10
HHW 47 80 60 77 / 0 10 80 10