Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL SEND AN AFTERNOON
UPDATE INCREASING POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO TO
INCREASE TEMPS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A LACK OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99





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