Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280624
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
124 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Main convective line has pushed out of southeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas TAF sites. Additional elevated thunderstorms starting
to develop west of Tulsa and this will likely continue into the
overnight hours with a marginally severe hail threat.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 848 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Severe threat continues across the entire area. Latest
mesoanalysis shows the synoptic front extending from far northeast
OK into western Oklahoma/TX panhandle. Another wind shift
boundary was located across northeast OK noted in mesonet and
radar data from Pryor/Tulsa/Oilton. Supercell in Okfuskee County
has recently been tornado warned and large hail/tornado potential
continues with this cell. The other strong storms are located in
south central OK and have been produced some large hail so far.

Have increased the hourly pops across the southern zones in
advance of the supercells approaching from south central Oklahoma.
Short term model guidance continue to show semi-discrete
supercells persisting for several hours. Until a more linear mode
develops, tornado threat will continue especially south of
Interstate 40.

Updates already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...12


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