Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291138
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT...ALONG
WITH INHERENT CIG/VSBY ISSUES. THE PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF AN ENDING MORNING ROUND FOLLOWED BY AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUND WHEN AN MCV LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. AN
END TO WHAT SEEMS LIKE ENDLESS ROUNDS OF MAY STORMS IS ON THE
HORIZON TONIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGELY MERIDIONAL UPPER
FLOW AIDING IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND ALSO EXPECT A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST PRECIP
H20 VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LIMITED AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUS THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS THE BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OF LATE. THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE AT LEAST LOCALIZED THREAT WILL EXIST.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY BRING A VERY WELCOME
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE REST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE TAPERING OFF PRECIP FASTER NOW WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
DONE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND GIVEN THIS WILL PUSH FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TO THAT TIME.

SHOULD FINALLY GET A FEW DRY DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RETURN IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS AS REMNANT LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  64  74  56 /  80  70  30  10
FSM   79  66  77  62 /  80  70  60  30
MLC   79  66  74  60 /  80  70  50  20
BVO   79  63  73  52 /  80  70  20  10
FYV   76  63  72  57 /  80  70  60  30
BYV   77  63  73  57 /  80  70  60  30
MKO   78  64  73  59 /  80  70  40  20
MIO   77  63  72  56 /  80  70  30  10
F10   80  65  72  58 /  80  70  40  10
HHW   79  67  78  62 /  80  70  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





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