Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 262048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING VERY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW...AS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA...SO DESPITE A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY TAKES THE CAKE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HOWEVER...AS
THE PRE FRONTAL WARM NOSE BECOMES POSITIONED ATOP THE REGION...AND
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STILL THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN TULSA...BUT WIDESPREAD MID AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S PROBABLE. THE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COUPLE WITH THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION FREE.

IT TOOK A FEW DAYS BUT THE MODEL SUITE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SOME COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FROM
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
BATCH SET TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS AND REMAIN LIQUID...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A RACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DATA OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW...AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT CAN TRANSITION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH IN THE DETAILS THAT /BROKEN RECORD
WARNING/ UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS BY
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   40  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   38  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22





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