499
FXUS64 KTSA 090520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across
northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends
from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is expected to continue in
the vicinity of the front as it moves east across the region. With
the airmass already extremely unstable and very little if any cap
in place, any storms that develop will have the potential to become
severe rapidly. Giant hail and significant tornadoes will be the
main concern with impressive deep layer shear above. The storms are
expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front
exits.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Most of the area will be dry on Thursday. However, there will be
a small chance of showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma Thursday
afternoon/evening as a storm system skirts the area to the
south. High pressure is expected to prevail Friday into Saturday with
dry conditions forecast area-wide. Shower/storm chances return
Sunday and continue into early next week as an upper level low slowly
moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

MVFR vsbys will be possible in patchy fog early in the
valid period, mainly at KFYV. TSRA that develops this
afternoon and evening is expected to remain south of
KMLC/KFSM, so will leave any mention out with this issuance.
Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail at all sites through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   84  57  78  53 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   81  57  77  53 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   80  50  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   77  50  72  51 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   78  53  75  52 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   76  50  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78  53  75  53 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   82  58  77  54 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23