Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
256 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cirrus debris from northeast Texas thunderstorm complex starting
to thin/shift east this afternoon. Enhanced cu field/sct
thunderstorms have developed across north-central Oklahoma where
stronger diabatic heating is occurring with a moderately unstable
air-mass in place.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop over
north-central Oklahoma with thunderstorm activity moving into
northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon/early evening. Deep layer
shear remains modest and forecast low level wind profiles are
somewhat uncertain and may actually become veered with time. With
that said however, conditions should support a threat for large
hail/damaging winds given the steep mid level lapse rates/cold
temperatures aloft. Overall tornado threat appears to be low,
especially given the multicellular nature, but a brief tornado can
not be ruled out. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely,
especially given the slow storm motions and therefore localized
flash flooding will be possible, especially in areas that have
already received heavy rainfall over the past several days.

One or more thunderstorm clusters should continue across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight.
Severe threat will diminish by late evening given the more stable
conditions further eastward.

Weak frontal boundary sags into the area on Saturday with the
potential for scattered showers/thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Warm conditions on Sunday as weak upper ridge briefly
builds into southern plains. Thunderstorm chances will continue
for much of next week as a series of upper waves traverse the area
and moist/unstable conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  84  68  86 /  60  20  20  40
FSM   67  83  69  87 /  60  20  20  30
MLC   68  83  68  86 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   62  85  62  86 /  60  20  20  40
FYV   61  80  63  81 /  60  20  20  30
BYV   64  83  64  83 /  60  20  20  30
MKO   67  83  67  86 /  60  20  20  30
MIO   64  82  65  86 /  60  20  20  30
F10   67  83  67  86 /  60  20  20  30
HHW   67  85  67  86 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12



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