Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 212000
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING HEAT INDEX OF 105. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN MOIST AXIS IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS RISING AND LEADING
TO SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF EASTERN OK
NEAR OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR A FEW DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STARTING FRIDAY DO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN
EACH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS JUST BELOW 105
AND THUS NO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ON BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE LATER NEXT WEEK HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT...THOUGH TODAY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A
FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A MODEST
COO DOWN BY THEN WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75  99  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   74  94  73  95 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   74  95  73  96 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....14







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