762
FXUS64 KTSA 011738
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

As of mid morning a MCS continued to track eastward across South
Central/Southeast Oklahoma. Along the path of the MCS...marginal
instability remained mainly elevated...with the greater deep
layer shear occurring just west/southwest of Pittsburg and
Pushmataha counties. At the same time...low level moisture vectors
continued to stream low level moisture up into the region. Across
the rest of the CWA...a few isolated showers continued near the
Kansas border...while partly to mostly cloudy conditions were
common.

Through this afternoon...the MCS is expected to continue its east
to east-southeast push across Southeast Oklahoma and exit during
the mid afternoon hours. Thus...light to locally heavy rain
showers along with thunderstorm chances will remain forecast through
mid afternoon over these locations. Mainly elevated and marginal
shear values for the MCS to interact could allow for a couple
storms to become strong/marginally severe with hail/strong winds
the main threat. Thus...will increase PoPs across Southeast
Oklahoma from west to east through mid afternoon.

Since low/mid level flow across Southeast Oklahoma was and should
continue to be generally less than 30KT through this
afternoon...overall movement of the MCS looks to remains mainly
20-30 mph. In response...locally heavy rainfall with hourly
rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour are capable within
the thunderstorm activity...creating localized flash flood
concerns.

Underneath the MCS temps should be slow to warm until mid
afternoon...while the rest of the CWA warms into the upper
70s/lower 80s underneath scattered afternoon cloud cover. For the
morning update...have adjusted PoPs/QPF/hourly Temps/Max Temps
across Southeast Oklahoma based on the movement of the MCS. The
rest of the forecast seems to be on track at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Convection which develops to our west this afternoon and evening
is likely to organize into one or more convective clusters
overnight and once again translate to the east and southeast. The
heaviest precipitation is likely to remain well to our south
overnight, but some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
in our area, with the highest chances in southeast Oklahoma.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday into Thursday evening as a cold front pushes into and
across our area, but CAMs suggest that the NBM categorical pops
are too high, so will once again lower them somewhat.

Friday will see a relative lull in convection before shower and
storm chances increase again over the weekend as another frontal
boundary moves across the area. A stronger storm system may move
out into the plains early next week bringing a chance for more
vigorous convection early next week, but the details remain
unclear on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Thunderstorm complex will continue to move across Southeast
Oklahoma through mid afternoon with scattered mid and high clouds
becoming common over the CWA behind the departing complex. Few to
scattered mid/high clouds are expected into the overnight hours
before increasing low and mid clouds late tonight and Thursday
morning. Thunderstorm chances also increase during this time
period from west to east and will continue with Prob30 groups for
timing. Within these storm chances....MVFR conditions become
possible and could linger to the end of the TAF period. Winds
through the period are forecast to remain generally out of the
south to southeast...with the exception of KFSM where more
easterly winds return tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  78  59 /  20  40  70  60
FSM   85  65  78  64 /  20  20  60  70
MLC   83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  70
BVO   82  63  77  55 /  30  40  70  60
FYV   80  63  75  59 /  20  20  70  70
BYV   81  65  77  60 /  20  10  70  70
MKO   82  64  76  60 /  20  40  70  70
MIO   78  64  75  58 /  20  20  70  70
F10   81  64  76  61 /  60  60  70  70
HHW   83  65  76  64 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20