Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 290906
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
406 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated convection has developed across southeast Oklahoma early
this morning to the north of a warm front lying just south of the
Red River, and this activity will continue to lift northeast this
morning into the rest of the forecast area. A few of the storms
will be severe with large hail being the primary threat.

The northward movement of the warm front today will be slowed by
the considerable amount of convection to its north. Surface low
pressure will move slowly east across the Texas south plains
today, reaching near the southwest corner of Oklahoma by this
evening. This will also help keep the true warm sector airmass
near the Red River. Surface based thunderstorms will likely
develop near and south of the warm front later this afternoon, and
these storms will have a hail, wind, and tornado threat. The
greatest tornado threat in our area is likely to be confined to
far southeast Oklahoma.

The surface low will weaken some as it lifts northeast overnight
tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move
across the area tonight ahead of a cold front that will trail
south from the low. At least a limited severe weather threat will
exist with these storms, mainly in the form of hail and damaging
winds.

Some precipitation may linger into Saturday from southeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but otherwise the weekend looks
dry. Another weaker system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday, with dry weather then
expected for the rest of next week. Temperatures will generally
run a bit below normal until late next week.

Stayed on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures the next
couple days, with guidance lows looking reasonable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  56  74  49 /  80  80  10  10
FSM   73  63  79  54 / 100  90  30  10
MLC   73  60  75  52 /  90  80  20  10
BVO   68  55  73  47 /  60  90  10  10
FYV   67  61  74  49 /  90  80  30  10
BYV   65  61  76  52 /  80  80  40  10
MKO   71  59  74  50 /  80  80  20  10
MIO   67  60  74  49 /  70  90  10  10
F10   71  57  74  51 /  80  70  10  10
HHW   75  65  78  55 /  90  90  30  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
     morning for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
     morning for ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

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