Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221720
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING. PARTS OF EASTERN OK MAY
ALSO SEE VFR CEILINGS IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OK AFTER 06Z AND INTO
WESTERN AR TO A LESSER EXTENT AFTER 12Z. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL THE COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ALL SITES NOW REPORTING VIS
OF 3 MILES OR MORE. ASIDE FROM THAT WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OK AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK
UPDATE TO REFRESH MORNING WORDING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14







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