Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 242353
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR conditions continue to hang on across portions of northwest
Arkansas this evening. This is expected to continue for the
next couple of hours. Otherwise...MVFR and VFR Conditions
are expected tonight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
at all area TAF sites most of the day Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...

While there will be lingering flooding from the recent days rains,
the rains have ended as the system has cleared our area to the
east. So the main forecast concern shifts toward the middle of
next week. The active pattern we have been in over the past week
is expected to continue into next week, as the current trough
lifting out across the Plains will be replaced by another one in
the southwest CONUS early next week.

The southwest CONUS upper trough early next week will be more
progressive than the previous system, and is expected to eject
into the Plains by the middle of the week. The frontal boundary
getting shoved to the south today will eventually return north as
a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night, and this will be when
rain chances return to the forecast. The GFS and ECMWF are in much
better agreement today compared to yesterday regarding the timing
and track of the system. Both models lift the frontal zone up into
the Arklatex region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and are hinting
that there will be an axis of heavier qpf north of the boundary
across SE OK into WC AR, fairly similar to the setup we`ve been
in over the past few days. Trends will need to be monitored for
the potential need for a flood watch as this time nears. The
severe weather potential with this system still remains uncertain.
While it appears that the true warm sector is not expected to lift
north into the region, both the EC and GFS show some
destabilization on the western fringe of the moist axis and ahead
of the Pacific front/dryline Wednesday afternoon.

Temperature wise, aside from low temps tonight and tomorrow night,
expect generally above average temps for the next several days
ahead of the next system, with 60s common for highs. Highs will
drop back to near normal behind the system Thursday, but should
warm back above average by next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  29  62  31 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   65  34  65  36 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   63  31  64  34 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   52  24  60  26 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  27  60  31 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   58  32  59  34 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   58  29  63  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   53  27  59  30 /   0   0   0  10
F10   57  29  63  33 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   67  37  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10


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