Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 302323
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE
ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





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