Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181944
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOT PLANNING ON CARRYING
A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THIS TIME.
TOWARD SUNRISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT IN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE
STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS...MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING
IN PRIMARILY FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY ADDITIONAL SHOT AT
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PROLONGED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR
THAN THE ACTIVE PATTERN THE AREA HAS BEEN TREATED TO THIS SUMMER
WILL CONTINUE BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
THE RIDGE TO BREAKDOWN TOWARD THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGITS. DURING THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HEAT INDICES MAY NEAR THE CRITICAL 105
DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERION...SO HEAT ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  98  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   73  97  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   73  96  75  96 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   71  98  72  98 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   70  94  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   70  94  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   71  96  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10  10
F10   72  95  74  95 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   71  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22





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