Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 262000
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated significant severe weather event is finally
upon us, with a Tornado Watch just issued for a portion of eastern
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms have developed within the last hour along
the dryline in western Oklahoma. Cu development farther south
along the dryline into northwest Texas is also evident, with
additional storm initiation expected within the next couple of
hours in that region. In addition, there is noted cu development
in the warm sector well ahead of the dryline in central Oklahoma.
Mesoanalysis indicating 4,000-5,000 J/kg of CAPE ahead of the
dryline across a good portion of Oklahoma, with values closer to
the 3,000-4,000 range in much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Deep layer shear is increasing and will continue to do
so through the evening with the approach of the upper level jet,
currently stretching across west Texas, leading to an increasing
severe weather threat across the forecast area through the evening
and overnight hours. Thunderstorms should continue to develop
through the afternoon and early evening hours along the dryline
and perhaps in advance of it as well. Except for initial
development that might affect areas generally west of Highway 75
late afternoon and evening, there should be an increasing
tendency toward more linear structures this far east, given more
northerly storm movements with the approach of the upper low. Much
of the high resolution guidance has favored a later arrival of
storms in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with much of the
activity in this part of the country likely to be after dark.
Despite the loss of daytime heating, however, shear parameters
will remain supportive of tornadoes well into the night, including
within QLCS structures.

Much of the thunderstorm activity will be east of the forecast
area by tomorrow morning, but additional thunderstorms could
develop during the afternoon hours across portions of northwest
Arkansas and maybe far southeast Oklahoma, with the dryline
expected to be slow to clear the area.

A brief dry period will arrive for early Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday evening, before additional rain and
thunderstorms develop to the southwest and spread northeastward
with the approach of another upper level storm system. This system
will affect the area into Saturday, leading to the potential for
heavy rain piling up mainly across southeast Oklahoma. Yet another
system looks likely for the early part of the week with attendant
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  52  80 /  80  10   0  10
FSM   65  83  55  85 /  80  30  20  10
MLC   64  80  53  84 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   62  77  49  77 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   62  76  49  79 /  80  40  20  10
BYV   64  78  52  80 /  80  40  20  10
MKO   63  79  52  81 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   63  78  51  77 /  80  20  10  10
F10   63  78  53  81 /  80  10   0  10
HHW   65  81  56  85 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22


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