Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 282118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
318 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific front making its way into far eastern OK this afternoon
has brought much drier air in behind it with RH values 20-25% in a
narrow swath through EC/NE Oklahoma leading to heightened fire
danger. Conditions will gradually improve as temps drop off but
will continue to see light west winds in most areas tonight. Broad
upper level trough axis will remain over the plains states
through mid week with dearth of atmospheric moisture keeping
conditions dry in spite of passage of some shortwave energy. A
stronger surge of cool air will arrive late Tuesday and knock
temps back closer to normal by Wednesday.

By late in the week and especially into the weekend, attention
will be turned back to the eastern Pacific and the next upper
level system to our west. The eventual fate of this system bears
close watching this weekend and into early next week, but
questions still abound at this point. GFS continues to cut a
significant portion of the upper energy off over Baja before
eventually lifting northeast into the plains by Monday. ECMWF on
the other hand, has a much more progressive and impactful system
for this section of the country.

Either solution at this point offers some rain chances by
Saturday, with the ECMWF indicating potential change to winter
weather, perhaps significant, by Sunday. Forecast at this time
will take the middle ground with a very broad brushed approach,
however will re-introduce some winter weather potential for Sat
night and Sunday. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  63  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   43  67  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   43  66  35  54 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   34  61  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   36  63  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  64  37  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  65  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   39  62  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   42  64  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  68  36  56 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14



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