Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VARYING VIS/CIGS FROM THE LIFR TO MVFR
SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH OVER THE REGION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...IN RESPONSE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENIC
BAND PUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS..WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS COMPARED
TO THE 06Z RUN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND STAYS TOGETHER AND MOVES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX.
THIS MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO MIX
PRECIP.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM LITTLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE
WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS AND ALSO SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS BASED ON
THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  28  38  27 / 100  40  40  20
FSM   32  30  43  33 /  60  60  50  30
MLC   33  30  40  32 /  80  50  30  30
BVO   29  23  37  22 / 100  40  40  10
FYV   29  30  41  27 /  80  60  50  30
BYV   28  28  39  26 /  80  70  50  30
MKO   31  29  39  27 /  90  50  40  30
MIO   29  26  37  24 / 100  50  50  10
F10   32  30  38  28 /  90  40  30  20
HHW   34  31  44  38 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ060-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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