Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE LOWER VIS/CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST.
ALSO OVERNIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT DEWPOINT ANALYSIS THE
FRONT WAS POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...THOUGH THE ISOLATED CHANCES LOOK
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A 700-MB THETA E AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE THETA AXIS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS TRY TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED
ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/TEMP
GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE BIT
BETTER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   67  86  68  85 /  20  40  30  20
MLC   68  88  69  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  88  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
FYV   62  81  64  83 /  20  50  40  20
BYV   61  78  63  76 /  20  60  50  20
MKO   67  87  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   63  83  66  85 /  20  50  50  20
F10   68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   69  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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