Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231053
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 12z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath high pressure aloft. A few
isold tsra are possible in the hi terrain of SE OK and W AR,
however coverage is not going to be great, and chances it will
affect a terminal is low. Thus, will leave mention of thunder out
of TAFs.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heat and humidity continue to be the main weather story, something
that will repeat again tomorrow and possibly into Monday as well.
Conditions this afternoon should be very similar to those
yesterday, with most areas expected to see maximum afternoon heat
index values in the 105 to 110 range. High temperatures Sunday may
be a degree or two lower than those forecast for today, as a
result of a modest increase in low cloud cover, especially across
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. However, a corresponding
degree or two increase in low level dew points on Sunday should
offset any cooling, leading to a continuation of the 105 to 110
heat indices. No changes planned to the going areawide Heat
Advisories already posted for today and Sunday.

Isolated thunderstorms could make their way into a small part of
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon, with a
slightly greater chance on Sunday as the upper level ridge
overhead shifts slowly westward.

Additional Heat Advisories may be required for Monday afternoon,
although this is not a slam dunk at this point. Available data
differ on how quickly the ridge will shift fully into the western
United States and also whether an approaching cold front will
actually make its way into the forecast area, rather than stopping
north of the region. This forecast will hedge toward the warmer
side of guidance, favoring a more stubborn ridge. More scattered
thunderstorm activity on the eastern periphery of the ridge,
however, should make its way into eastern parts of the forecast
area on Monday afternoon.

The advertised cooler and wetter weather should arrive fully by
the middle to latter part of the week as the ridge finally shifts
west of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  80 100  79 /   0   0  10  10
FSM  101  79  98  78 /  20  10  30  20
MLC  100  76  98  75 /  10   0  10  10
BVO  100  75 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   95  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  20
BYV   96  76  95  73 /  20   0  30  20
MKO  100  75  99  76 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   97  75  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
F10  100  79  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
HHW  101  76  98  76 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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