Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 131142
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
542 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Winds are forecast to become breezy out of the southwest this
morning and then shift out of the west then northwest this
afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the CWA. Gusts
in the 15-25KT range will be possible with the higher gusts over
Northwest Arkansas during the day. Winds overnight become light
out of the north. VFR conditions with mostly clear to scattered
high clouds are forecast through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Deteriorating fire weather conditions will be the main concern
today across eastern OK/northwest AR. The persistent dry airmass
along with temperatures well in the 60s will drop afternoon RH
values to near 20 percent over a large portion of the area. Winds
(initially southwest...shifting to west/northwest during the
afternoon with a cold front) should remain below Red Flag
criteria...although we`ll need to closely monitor speeds
especially across parts of northeast OK. Will issue a fire danger
statement areawide.

Cooler weather expected for Thursday/Friday...with warmer temps by
Saturday as stronger southerly flow returns. Poor fire weather
conditions are expected again for Saturday afternoon as RH values
drop to around 25-35 percent.

Models are in reasonable agreement now ejecting a closed low from
Mexico and into the southern Plains by late Saturday. Moisture
return appears sufficient to support a chance of showers mainly
Saturday night...with the better chances across southeast OK into
western AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  34  47  30 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   65  35  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   68  35  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  30  46  26 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   61  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  30  41  27 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   67  34  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  30  43  25 /   0   0   0  10
F10   68  34  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  37  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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