Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271058
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy fog will continue in a few locations early this morning
with some MVFR ceilings also possible. Any low ceilings or
visibilities unlikely to persist beyond 15z with VFR prevailing
thereafter. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected again
this afternoon with greatest aerial coverage across western AR.
MVFR conditions possible with any storms...which will end after
00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Shortwave trough will lift across the northern Plains/Midwest into
the Great Lakes tonight. To the south of this system over our
area, the flow aloft will weaken and mid level heights will slowly
rise. At the surface, the frontal boundary that brought convection
to the region a couple days ago has lifted well to the north of
our area, lying from western KS across southern IA and into
northern IL. Given a lack of focus over our area, storms will be
fueled by the Sun and more concentrated along the deep layer
moist axis from the ArkLaTex north into the Ozarks. Storms will
die off as the giant energy ball sets this evening, with some hit
and miss activity again on Sunday and Monday as well.

Rain/storm chances will be highest across much of the region as
we head toward the middle of next week, as a weak boundary drops
in the vicinity and focuses convection. The flow aloft will be
weak with broad ridging overhead, thus severe potential will be
low but pockets of locally heavy rain are possible.

Rain chances decrease to close out the week as the boundary washes
out, deep layer moisture decreases and mid level heights continue
to rise.

Daytime highs will climb into the low 90s and overnight lows will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s thru the period.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
FSM   90  72  93  73 /  50  20  20  10
MLC   89  70  92  70 /  30  10  20  10
BVO   90  69  91  68 /  20  10  30  10
FYV   86  67  88  67 /  50  20  20  10
BYV   87  68  89  68 /  50  20  20  10
MKO   90  70  92  70 /  30  10  20  10
MIO   90  70  92  70 /  30  10  30  10
F10   90  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
HHW   89  72  92  72 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14


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