Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220150
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
750 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows leading edge of the truly cold air,
which lagged well behind the cold front, now along or just south
of the I-44 corridor this evening. This will be a glancing blow of
arctic air for our region, and lows temps Wednesday morning will
feel like it. The center of the surface anticyclone will slide
south tonight, and then over our area on Wednesday. Winds will
subside by morning, though may not go completely calm.
Nevertheless, expect overnight lows to be a good 10 to 20 degrees
colder than last night. The going forecast agrees with the short
term guidance and will thus not plan on making changes.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected for all sites. Wind gusts will drop
off within the next 2-4 hours, with light winds under 12 kt
expected the remainder of the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The forecast for the next week or so is fairly uneventful. A
strong cold front is currently pushing through the forecast area,
with strong northerly winds and much cooler temperatures behind
it. Surface high pressure moving in overnight will provide the
coldest night so far this season in many places. Lows will flirt
with the upper teens in favored areas of northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas. Highs tomorrow will be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than those today. Southerly winds will make a return by
Thanksgiving, as surface high pressure pushes to the east, and high
temperatures will return to above normal levels.

Another cold front will approach the region from the north Friday
night, with well above normal temperatures likely ahead of the
front that afternoon. Winds are currently not expected to get too
out of control, which should keep the fire danger in check,
despite the expectation of minimum relative humidities below 40
percent. However, if winds do become gusty, fire danger could
become a bigger problem than presently expected on Friday.

Temperatures behind the Friday night front will not be as chilly
as those behind the current front, with highs Saturday and Sunday
still above normal. Yet another cold front will move through the
region toward the middle of next week. Moisture return ahead of
this front may be sufficient enough to lead to some rain potential
with it, especially across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  47  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  52  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  50  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   21  47  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   22  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  47  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   26  48  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  46  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   28  48  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   34  54  32  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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