Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 231752
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread rain showers will continue to lift northeast through
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through this evening with
scattered rain chances late tonight into early Saturday morning.
An isolated embedded thunder potential will be possible...though
for now will only mention at MLC due the slightly greater
potential. During the mid/late morning hours Saturday...rain
showers are forecast to become more widespread again with a
thunder potential across the CWA ahead of a cold front that looks
to move into the region just outside this TAF period. The result
of continued rain chances will be ceilings varying between LIFR
to IFR with a few periods of MVFR ceilings possible across the
CWA through the TAF period. Visibilities also look to fall below
VFR and vary between IFR and MVFR through the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1020 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Upper level shortwave within the southwesterly upper level flow
was lifting northeast across Texas this morning. A widespread
area of warm advection interacting with this wave was aiding in a
continued development of rain showers with isolated/scattered
embedded thunder lifting north- northeast across North
Texas...Oklahoma and Arkansas. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...precip was currently located south of
Interstate 40 with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s over the
CWA.

Through tonight...widespread rain showers with isolated embedded
thunder are expected to continue to spread northeastward across
the CWA as the shortwave moves through the region. Latest data
suggests that the heaviest rainfall axis looks to line up across
Southeast Oklahoma through Northwest Arkansas. Current hourly rain
rates were ranged from near a tenth of an inch to up toward a
half inch within the stronger showers. Thus...additional rainfall
amounts in the one to two inch range are forecast over Southeast
Oklahoma...far Eastern Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas...a
half to around one inch in Northeast Oklahoma...and lesser amounts
northwest of Interstate 44. In response...the flood watch has
been expended back west and north to include most locations along
and east of Highway 69 in Oklahoma and also all of Northwest
Arkansas.

Widespread rains...ongoing cloud cover along with the current cool
airmass entrenched across the region should keep temperatures from
warming all that much. Dewpoints slowly increasing from south to
north should be the one helping factor for high temperatures
today to get into the mid 40s to low 50s across the CWA. For the
morning update have added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint
grids... adjusted hourly pops and increased afternoon QPF over
Northwest Arkansas based on the mentioned above and current
trends/observations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  42  55  27 /  90  80  80   0
FSM   52  51  63  34 / 100  80  90   0
MLC   46  46  61  31 / 100  90  90   0
BVO   44  39  53  24 /  70  70  70   0
FYV   51  49  60  28 / 100  90  80   0
BYV   51  48  60  32 / 100  90  80  10
MKO   46  45  59  30 / 100  90  90   0
MIO   47  43  55  27 /  80  90  70   0
F10   44  44  59  30 / 100  90  90   0
HHW   52  51  65  35 / 100  70 100  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-058-063-
     068>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.