Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280355
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 00Z FORECAST. AS SUGGESTED IN MY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC REGARDING FOG
THICKNESS TONIGHT OVER IN NW AR...AND I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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