Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221934
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
234 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Excessive/dangerous heat continues this afternoon with heat
indices already at or above 110 degrees across much of northeast
Oklahoma. Low level moisture has increased across aforementioned
area from yesterday with 24 hour dewpoints running a couple of
degrees higher. GOES-16 derived PWAT also indicates an increase
with a deeper moist axis across eastern Oklahoma compared to
Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions
of Kansas this evening with a low chance of storms moving into
far northeast Oklahoma late tonight. A weak outflow boundary from
decaying convection could move in far NE OK, dropping low temperatures
a degree or two compared to the last few nights.

Hot/humid conditions again expected on Sunday ahead of a weak
frontal boundary which will move into northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon. Will continue with the current
heat advisory/excessive heat warning configuration for now given
some degree of uncertainty on high temperatures. Increased
dewpoints across NE OK/NW AR however may offset slightly lower
temperatures, keeping heat indices in 105-110 degree range.

Scattered thunderstorms are still expected near frontal boundary
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Some of the short
range/higher resolution models show convection that develops over
NW AR propagating SW into eastern Oklahoma along instability axis.
A few of the stronger storms could produce locally damaging
downburst winds and heavy rainfall.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will remain possible both Monday
and Tuesday near any residual outflow boundaries or convectively
induced MCVs. Upper ridge will build back over the region by
Wednesday with the hot/humid conditions returning at least through
the remainder of the work week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  97  75  96 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   78  98  77  94 /   0  20  50  40
MLC   78  97  74  94 /   0  20  40  40
BVO   76  96  69  94 /  20  30  40  20
FYV   74  93  70  91 /   0  50  50  30
BYV   75  94  72  91 /  10  50  40  30
MKO   76  96  75  93 /   0  20  50  30
MIO   76  94  71  94 /  20  40  40  20
F10   77  98  75  93 /   0  20  50  30
HHW   76  95  75  94 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-063-068-
     069-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>058-
     060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....12



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