Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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385
FXUS64 KTSA 232101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
401 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MCV near the northeast corner of our forecast area continues to
drift east with an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms
near and west of the center. This is forcing an outflow boundary
south across northeast Oklahoma and nortwest Arkansas. Expect this
activity to slowly diminish over the next few hours, and attention
will then turn to convection developing way out west along the
dryline. This activity may again form into an MCS overnight, which
may make a run at our forecast area late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Additional development will be possible Tuesday afternoon
and evening along residual outflow boundaries.

Wednesday looks to be the quietest day of the week, but still may
see isolated shower and thunderstorm development. Convective
chances will increase once again late Thursday through Friday as
the main upper level storm system lifts northeast into the Plains.
This time frame looks to be the most likely period for organized
severe weather in our forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will lessen over the weekend, but
at least isolated storm coverage is likely each day, with
convective chances likely to persist even into next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  82  72  88 /  50  50  30  20
FSM   67  82  71  87 /  50  60  30  20
MLC   70  81  72  85 /  50  60  30  20
BVO   66  81  70  88 /  50  50  30  20
FYV   63  79  67  84 /  50  60  30  20
BYV   63  79  69  86 /  50  60  30  20
MKO   69  81  70  86 /  50  60  30  20
MIO   66  80  71  86 /  50  60  30  20
F10   70  80  71  86 /  50  50  30  20
HHW   70  82  72  86 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

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