Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 110955
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  33  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  35  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  32  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   51  24  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  27  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   49  29  51  18 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  32  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  27  49  17 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  33  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07


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