Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 202041
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
341 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A showery, and somewhat dreary, day today as front moves in from the
north. The front will continue to push south this afternoon and
stall out briefly near the Red River Valley late this
afternoon/evening before reversing and shifting back north later
tonight. As isentropic lift increases over the region this
evening, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop along and
north of the front. Given elevated instability of 1000-1500 J/kg
and 0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kts, a few strong storms could
develop with hail being the primary threat.

The main focus still remains on heavy rain overnight tonight and
continuing through Friday before decreasing Friday night as the
cold front moves through. Front currently moving through the area
will shift slightly north tonight and looks to stall near I-40,
or just a south of the interstate. Models have trended a bit
further south with precipitation axis as a result of this frontal
shift. However, there are a few models shifting the main precip
axis south of I-40. For now, have just slightly shifted the axis
south, but main precip axis still looks like it will be focused
between I-40 and I-44. Given the somewhat convective nature of
this event, 2 to 4 inches of precip is likely with some locations
receiving over 2 inches within the Flood Watch area. The front may
shift north a bit Friday, but a decent northern shift is unlikely
due to ongoing precipitation north of the front.

Second concern is the potential for strong to severe storms Friday
evening as the cold front approaches. Warm sector may initiate
along and ahead of the cold front as instability exceeds 1000 J/kg
and nose of the 500mb jet nudges into the region. Some
uncertainty still exists as to the overall coverage of severe
thunderstorms. Hail and wind will be the main threat with any
storm that develops.

Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas may see a bit of wrap-
around showers Saturday morning. Saturday looks to be quite chilly
with highs not reaching much about the middle 50s. However, a
rapid warm-up begins Sunday as shortwave ridging build back over
the Plains. Precipitation looks to hold off until about mid-week
when a shortwave trough quickly moves over the Northern Plains.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  62  47  57 / 100 100  70  20
FSM   63  74  53  59 /  90  90  80  20
MLC   62  78  49  61 /  70  80  80  10
BVO   53  58  46  57 /  90 100  80  30
FYV   57  64  47  53 /  90 100  90  40
BYV   55  59  47  52 /  90 100  90  50
MKO   59  70  48  57 /  90 100  80  20
MIO   53  57  45  54 /  90 100  90  40
F10   58  71  47  59 /  90 100  70  10
HHW   64  80  52  63 /  20  40  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Friday evening for
     OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Friday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....11



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