Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MVFR/IFR SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING SITES KBVO KXNA KFYV
KFSM OVERNIGHT. FOG LIFTING BY 14Z ALL LOCATIONS AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR...BREEZY REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
EVENING IS GRADUALLY GETTING SUPPRESSED...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVER INTO CENTRAL MO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST...AND THE ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO INTRODUCE FOG SOONER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK WHERE A REPORT OF FOG HAS BEEN
RECEIVED.

INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE DUE TO THE FLATTENING
OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LEE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON SUNDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON...IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS NEAR
90 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. HARD TO BELIEVE THIS IS OCCURRING
IN LATE OCTOBER. A DOSE OF REALITY IS COMING NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING AT SITES KBVO/KFYV/KXNA/KFSM AFTER
07Z. POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY KFSM 09Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY SKC. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WIND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST TO 20-25KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

IT IS LATE OCTOBER BUT THAT FACT IS NOT READILY APPARENT BY THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR RECORD HEAT PREVAILS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SITES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
HIGHS TOMORROW.

PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CANEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR
BARTLESVILLE AS WELL. NAM HANDLED THIS MORNINGS FOG THE BEST...AND
ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING.
CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE LITTLE HINDRANCE TO THE WARM UP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS
IN MOST SPOTS...DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MORE THAN BALANCE THAT OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE THE PREFRONTAL WARM NOSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRICKY ON MONDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MORNING
LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL OFFSET...AT
LEAST TO SOME EXTENT...PREFRONTAL WARMING EFFECTS. DESPITE THESE
COMPLICATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT MCALESTER AND
WILBURTON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BUT NON ZERO. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MERIDIONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OF THE
SEASON SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND IF EXPECTATIONS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   59  88  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   63  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  90  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   57  86  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   59  84  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   60  89  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  87  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
F10   62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   61  87  60  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





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