Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 031105
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, patchy fog across a portion of Northwest
Arkansas this morning will continue to affect KFYV for another
hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
24 hour forecast period at all sites.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as
ridging at the surface and aloft prevails. Quite a bit of
cloudiness will spill over the upper ridge into the area,
especially tonight through Monday, but a dry low level airmass is
expected to preclude measurable rainfall. Would not be surprised
to see a few sprinkles though at some point over the next couple
A warming trend will take place next week with temperatures
returning to above normal levels by midweek. The models differ
greatly on the handling of an upper level storm system that will
be moving out of the southwest U.S. during the middle to latter
part of next week. The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF
and UKMET resulting in a cooler and wetter solution late next
week. The European models close off the low well to our southwest
which would result in a much warmer and drier solution. For now
will stick to a compromise solution, which results in low pops
late next week along with temperatures well above the GFS solution
but well below the steamy ECMWF.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days
although if cloud cover becomes too extensive, diurnal ranges may
be less than forecast.