Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 140303
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
903 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing widespread precip across far E OK and W AR has largely
remained south of the freezing line with much more scattered light
freezing rain reported further north. Zone of stronger
frontogenetic forcing is forecast to become established from
central OK through NE OK overnight and recent radar trends support
this process is underway. Numerical guidance is in fairly good
agreement on focusing the majority of the late night precip along
this zone. Update will further tighten the forecast precip
gradient thus reducing amounts near the OK/KS border and south of
I-40 after midnight.
Regarding precip type the freezing line has been adjusted
slightly per observational trends which does introduce fzra a bit
further southward overnight and the freezing rain advisory was
adjusted accordingly. Icing amounts were also adjusted with the
reworked qpf amounts and focused the overnight icing nearer the
I-44 corridor. Temps look to remain just below freezing in this
zone which may slightly limit accumulation potential and updated
amounts remain below warning criteria thus no further expansion of
the ice storm warning. The largest uncertainty overnight is the
amount of precip developing along a fairly narrow zone. Should our
forecast amounts be underestimated then icing potential will be
higher specifically northern portions of Creek cnty where temps
are slightly colder making that area a candidate for higher
totals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  34  33  53 /  90  80  70  40
FSM   45  49  47  61 /  90  60  50  40
MLC   36  44  40  60 /  80  50  50  30
BVO   27  33  32  52 /  70  80  80  40
FYV   39  46  44  57 /  90  70  60  40
BYV   35  43  40  53 /  90  80  60  40
MKO   35  40  40  57 /  90  70  60  30
MIO   31  34  34  54 /  80  80  80  30
F10   32  37  36  56 /  90  80  60  40
HHW   45  57  52  65 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Saturday for OKZ058-
     060>062-064>067.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>057-059.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



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