Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 281021
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
421 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Busy morning with storms finally moving into our area after
midnight. Severe threat across our area is fading...as most
intense part of the bowing segment has now moved east of
Choctaw/Pushmataha counties. Highest observed winds were around 44
mph on the mesonet site at Hugo...with 36mph at the actual ob
site.

Once these storms move east of the area later this morning...models
are forecasting rapid clearing from the west. Numerical guidance
came in several degrees higher than the blended models and this
seems reasonable given full sun in the western counties most of
the day. Pacific front/dryline is still across western OK this
morning...with dewpoints in the teens and 20s behind the boundary
/18 at Woodward and 21 at Gage/. We considered whether red flag
criteria would be met...given expected strong winds and min RH
values between 25-30 percent. This will need to be monitored
today. There is a better chance of meeting criteria southwest of
Tulsa...and there is still an ongoing chance of rain. Most
mesonet sites indicate that precipitation so far has been less
than a half inch across SE OK but this will obviously have an
effect on fire danger.

Next chance for precip will this weekend. 28/00z ECMWF solution is
a complete change from earlier runs...generating quite a snow
storm by Sunday. However the ECMWF ensemble mean doesn`t agree
with the operational run...and now the latest GFS has a warm
enough thermal profile to support all rain. We won`t make any
dramatic changes to going forecast at this point. As always...it
will be interesting to follow the extended guidance over the next
few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  40  63  35 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  40  69  38 /  80   0   0   0
MLC   70  41  66  36 /  50   0   0   0
BVO   67  34  62  32 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   66  37  63  32 /  70   0   0   0
BYV   66  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   68  41  64  34 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   67  39  62  32 /  30   0   0   0
F10   68  40  64  33 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  45  68  38 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PLATE
LONG TERM....CORFIDI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.