Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 142346
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered MVFR conditions look to spread back over Southeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas tonight...while Northeast
Oklahoma should remain broken mid/high clouds. A period of lower
visibilities and IFR conditions may be possible again early
Thursday morning across Northwest Arkansas. During the day
Thursday...MVFR conditions look to become scattered and or lift to
VFR conditions by the afternoon hours ahead of a cold front
forecast to move into the CWA just outside of this TAF period.
Winds during the period should remain breezy out of the south to
southwest for most locations and become gusty ahead of the front
Thursday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will be a good 25 to 30 degrees above
normal Tonight as southerly winds are expected to
continue overnight with cloud cover also redeveloping
or remaining over the area. The temperatures will continue
to be very warm on Thursday in advance of a cold front that
will move through the region Thursday night. With the much
above temperatures and southwest winds, the fire weather
danger will increase on Thursday.

The chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will
pick up Thursday night behind the cold front as a southwesterly
flow aloft prevails. Most of the showers will be confined to
southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas on Friday before
a significant shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow
aloft brings more moisture over the area Friday night into
Saturday. There is the possibility of a light wintry mix late
Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Any snow or ice accumulations
are expected to be light.

After a brief dry period Saturday night into Sunday morning, The
southwesterly flow aloft will become more active with chances
of showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday into early next
week. With the persistent southwesterly flow aloft and a surface
boundary slowly moving across the the area early next week. There
will be the potential for some heavier rain amounts across portions
of southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  80  34  42 /  10   0  20  10
FSM   57  76  45  46 /  10  10  60  40
MLC   60  77  40  42 /  10  10  30  30
BVO   56  81  32  42 /  10   0  20  10
FYV   59  73  37  40 /  10  10  70  30
BYV   57  74  35  40 /   0  10  70  30
MKO   57  78  38  42 /  10  10  50  20
MIO   57  77  31  40 /  10  10  30  10
F10   60  79  37  41 /  10  10  40  20
HHW   58  74  49  49 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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