Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... LIGHT SNOWFALL AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF A HEAVIER SNOW
BAND PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION... LIKELY AFFECTING ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING A NARROW BUT HEAVY SNOW BAND
NORTHWEST OF TULSA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE
CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN ALL THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER JET
STREAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE DAY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BOARDERS. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN AS MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CURRENTLY...ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
FROPA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND CONCERNING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

COLD/BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
     FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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