Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220945
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE COMMON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
TEMPS/WET BULB TEMPS REMAINED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE CWA. TO THE WEST...SOME OBSERVATIONS OF A RAIN SNOW MIX HAD
DEVELOPED WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THE PRECIPITATION WAS
MAINLY ALL SNOW. ALL OF THIS PRECIP WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROF LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...PUSHING
INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LONGWAVE BREAKS OFF AND JOINS
BACK UP WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY EAST THROUGH TEXAS.
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...TEMP PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
FREEZING LINE RANGING IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE AGL WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WHERE
TRACE AMOUNTS TO A TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION COULD BE POSSIBLE.
THOUGH THIS VERY WELL COULD BE OVERDONE WITH SURFACE TEMPS BEING
AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN THUS FAR THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-40 WITH ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUING IN THE 40S.
ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S COMMON.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS TEXAS WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COOLER SURFACE TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE A RAIN SNOW MIX...WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
PUSHMATAHA AND LE FLORE COUNTIES. LOWS ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 30S SOUTH.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND EXIT THE REGION DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY PUSHES OFF TOWARD THE
GULF COAST STATES. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BECOMING
ALL RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...SKIES
ARE PROGGED TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO QUICKLY PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND LITTLE
MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS NEXT WAVE...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW FOR THE CWA. THIS WILL AID TEMPS TO WARM BACK
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS BACK WELL INTO THE 60S LOOK PROBABLE
BY MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  26  49  29 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   47  33  48  29 /  50  10  10   0
MLC   46  29  48  28 /  80  20  10   0
BVO   48  23  49  27 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  27  46  26 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   46  28  45  29 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   47  29  48  29 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   48  26  47  28 /  10  10   0   0
F10   47  29  48  29 /  50  10   0   0
HHW   43  34  48  29 / 100  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20




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