Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 302345
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
645 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered rain showers across the region should taper off over the
next couple of hours as an upper level impulse exits to the east.
Behind the impulse...scattered to broken mid clouds should be
common into the overnight hours. Late tonight into early Tuesday
morning...MVFR conditions with some possible IFR conditions look
to set up over the region before southerly winds pick back up
around 5-10kt mid morning Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances increase
again during the day Tuesday with possible periods of MVFR
conditions within any convection. Otherwise...VFR conditions
should persist Tuesday Afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
Overnight convective potential will be controlled by the remnant
MCV lifting northward across northeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
Areal coverage should be highest on the northern and eastern side
of the vortex, affecting mainly far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening. Persistent cloud cover and cooler
afternoon temperatures has led to substantially less instability
than yesterday, which will severely limit the organization and
hail potential of any thunderstorms. After the MCV clears the area
later this evening, the remainder of the night should be mostly
Thunderstorm potential will increase late morning and into the
afternoon tomorrow as a slow moving front approaches from the
northwest. The increase in cloud cover and likelihood of
afternoon thunderstorms will lead to continued cooler high
temperatures especially to the north of Interstate 40, with
slightly higher values in the south. The severe weather potential
will increase some above what we see today, with 2000-3000 J/kg
CAPEs ahead of the front in southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Overall, likely thunderstorm potential will spread
southeastward during the evening and overnight tomorrow night as
the front sags southward.
The front will stall across the area through a good part of this
work week and perhaps even into the early part of the weekend.
Thunderstorm potential will continue to be focused along and south
of the front, placing parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas in the region most likely to see repeated rounds of
thunderstorms through the rest of the week.
Toward the latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next
week, upper level ridging in the west will amplify, pushing a
trough into the central and eastern United States that will give
the front a nudge southward. Drier conditions and temperatures
nearer to normal should be the result by next Monday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 82 65 78 / 20 50 70 70
FSM 66 84 67 78 / 20 30 70 70
MLC 66 82 65 76 / 20 40 70 70
BVO 63 81 62 77 / 20 60 70 60
FYV 61 80 63 75 / 30 40 70 70
BYV 63 79 63 75 / 30 40 70 70
MKO 65 81 65 76 / 20 50 70 70
MIO 63 81 63 76 / 30 50 70 70
F10 66 82 64 76 / 20 50 70 70
HHW 67 83 67 79 / 20 30 70 70