Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 282345
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
545 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of rain will continue to moves across the region over the
next 24 hours with widespread IFR conditions. While the rain
has diminished in coverage this evening, an increase in coverage
is expected after 09z...especially in southern areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
Very slow moderation of the shallow cold airmass in place across
the area will continue to occur over the next 36 to 48 hours. The
process will then hasten by Monday afternoon as winds shift to a
more westerly component. Will cancel the flash flood watch with
this issuance. While additional rainfall is expected over the next
24-36 hours, rainfall rates will not be sufficient to result in
flash flooding. An areal flood warning remains in effect where the
greatest additional rainfall amounts will occur. The northwest
corner of Osage County remains near the freezing line, and this
will likely remain the case for much of the night. There are some
indiciations that just like last night, temperatures may warm a
degree or so late tonight, which is the most likely time period
for measurable rain in that area. Thus, no mention of wintry
precipitation will be carried at this time.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail most of next
week once this system clears the area. The next storm system will
bring a chance of rain back to the area just beyond the range of
The NAM12 temperatures were all within a degree of observed
readings during the past 24 hours, and will continue to use these
values for the forecast until the winds shift and help to scour
out the shallow cold air Monday.