Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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906
FXUS64 KTSA 131146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
546 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High level clouds and winds shifting from the northeast to more
easterly will be common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas during the day today. Overnight...ceilings are forecast
to fall into the MVFR category with breezy southeasterly winds
across the region as an upper level wave approaches. Toward the
end of the TAF period...some areas of drizzle and or freezing
drizzle with lower visibilities look to be possible over parts of
Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Greater chances for
precipitation look to be just outside of this TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A drier and colder airmass continues to overspread the area and
expect afternoon highs to hold near seasonal averages. Southerly
flow will quickly return tonight as the arctic high shifts
east...with gradual moistening of the dry airmass as isentropic
lift increases. May see some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle
develop late tonight...with better chances of light icing by
Sunday morning across parts of northwest AR and perhaps far
eastern OK. This still could end up being a low-end advisory
event...but will defer the decision for any headlines to the day
shift. Otherwise...areas of rain are expected farther south into
southeast OK...with precipitation exiting the area by Monday
morning.

Next week is looking dry and significantly warmer...especially by
late week as a mid-level ridge builds in the Plains and
south/southwest flow returns. Will continue to go at or above
guidance temps...with highs expected to warm well into the 70s for
most areas by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  37  53  37 /   0  20  30  10
FSM   49  33  45  35 /   0  20  40  40
MLC   52  41  53  38 /   0  20  30  30
BVO   44  34  55  32 /   0  20  30   0
FYV   44  30  44  32 /   0  20  50  20
BYV   39  26  42  32 /   0  20  50  20
MKO   49  36  50  36 /   0  20  30  20
MIO   42  32  49  33 /   0  20  40  10
F10   52  40  53  38 /   0  20  30  20
HHW   52  40  57  42 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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