Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 162039
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front has pushed south of the ARKLATX region this afternoon
with cool and cloudy conditions across much of the area. Areas of
light rain starting to develop across southeast Oklahoma in response
to approaching upper wave. Light to moderate rain will continue to
increase in coverage this evening, spreading into eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas overnight. Areas around the Interstate 40
corridor should see around a half inch of rain with lesser amounts
to the north and south. Surface winds will begin to veer around to
the southeast tonight and with increasing dewpoints tonight no
significant threat for freezing rain is expected. Precipitation
will begin to shift east of the region Saturday morning with dry
conditions Saturday afternoon.

Warming trend will continue on Sunday with an elevated fire
weather threat developing Sunday afternoon as gusty south winds
increase with limited moisture return initially. Pressure gradient
will continue to tighten into Monday, as upper trough becomes
more amplified over the intermountain west, with gusty south
winds to 40 mph likely in many areas. As upper system approaches,
scattered areas of light rain are expected Sunday night into
Monday. There remain some model differences concern timing of cold
front Monday night into Tuesday which will have a significant
impact on overall thunderstorm potential and QPF amounts.
ECMWF/Canadian remain the slowest with frontal passage and keeps
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall training over the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night. GFS remains the most progressive with front,
keeping the heavier precipitation mainly confined to southeast
Oklahoma. A blend of the faster/slower solutions seems the most
appropriate forecast at this time given the ongoing uncertainties.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  60  37  65 /  90  30   0  10
FSM   42  56  35  62 / 100  90   0  20
MLC   40  55  35  63 / 100  50   0  20
BVO   34  60  29  64 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   34  51  29  62 /  90  80   0  10
BYV   33  51  34  61 /  90  90   0  10
MKO   40  55  35  65 / 100  50   0  10
MIO   35  54  33  65 /  80  50   0  10
F10   39  57  37  64 / 100  30   0  10
HHW   43  55  41  62 /  90  70  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12



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