Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Some patchy fog will be possible early this morning across
northwest AR...otherwise expected VFR conditions. Could see a
few showers/storms this afternoon across southeast OK into
northwest AR...but chances too low and coverage too sparse to
mention in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Remnants of yesterday`s MCS have largely pushed into north Texas,
with only a few trailing showers continuing across far southeast
Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, primarily across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas, in response to a vort max dropping southward
through the area. Much of this activity should diminish with the
loss of daytime heating. Mid and high clouds persisting through
the day to the southeast of I-44 will keep temperatures down (in
the low to mid 90s), with areas along and north of the interstate
seeing above normal temperatures despite the front in the area.
Tuesday should be dry in most spots, although there is a slight
chance of mainly afternoon development in parts of far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Triple digit heat will return to parts of the region by Wednesday
as the upper ridge builds overhead. Yesterday`s rainfall should
have an effect on temperatures in areas that actually saw rain,
and as such, forecast temperatures for mid week reflect at least
a couple of degree decrease from blended guidance in regions that
saw the most. Heat headlines will likely be needed once again for
parts of the upcoming week.

Northwest flow will develop across the Central and Southern Plains
region late this week and into the weekend, as the upper ridge
shifts and amplifies across the western United States. Medium
range guidance still differs on timing of the late week front and
associated showers and thunderstorm chances, with the GFS
continuing to favor a faster solution by 12-24 hours. With the
differences, will go no higher than a 30 percent POP and a slight
hedge toward a slower solution. Much more pleasant temperatures
and dew points will follow the front for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  75  98  80 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   94  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   93  73  94  76 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   97  68  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   90  69  91  70 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   94  70  93  72 /  20  20  20  10
MKO   93  72  94  74 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   95  70  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
F10   95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   91  73  95  75 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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