Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281724
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY AND
LIKELY BEYOND THAT. HOWEVER SOME DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD AT
LEAST BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT THIS
TIME REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AFTER 12Z
THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY SHAPING UP WITH TEMPS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 18C AT
900MB ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING. DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE A STRONG
SW WIND AT THAT LEVEL WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING TO A BETTER DEPTH
AND ADD A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE THE NORM. DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING SSW
WINDS. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING CONFIGURED AS IS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND AND RH LEVELS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT SEND AN UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14






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