000
FXUS64 KTSA 221721
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KXNA AND KFYV.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT KTUL.
KFSM WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY A DRY DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL. DARBY
QPF FOOTPRINT ALGORITHM APPLIED TO MAX TEMPS.

ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS INTENT ON A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY. RETURN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE  UNDERNEATH RIDGE  ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS
YIELDS CHANCE POPS.  LEANED TOWARD  SUPERIOR
ECMWF AND ITS WETTER SOLUTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINS LOW
OR MARGINAL POP WITH LITTLE TO DELINEATE DRY
WEATHER FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEATHER.  MUST BE
LATE SPRING.                              GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10