000
FXUS64 KTSA 141051
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF
SITES BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE MLC AREA WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH MOST PLACES STARTING OUT MUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS IN PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY BE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44...ALTHOUGH THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING A DECREASE IN
STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER TROUGH ORGANIZES IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMUP...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHICH COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD BE INCREASED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHEN COMPARED TO THE
STORMS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD. GFS HAS BEEN THE FASTER SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A DAY OR SO SLOWER. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...OWING TO ITS FORECAST OF A
STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE. WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME...HOLDING ONTO POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO NEXT TUESDAY IF THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ON THE
SLOWER SIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12