000
FXUS64 KTSA 110815
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
315 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

After a few days with shower and thunderstorm potential, we`re
looking at a dry day with clearing skies. The upper level low that
plagued the region for the early to middle part of this work week
has shifted eastward into Arkansas, and the back edge of the
associated precipitation, located east of I-49 at present, is on
its way out. The back edge of the associated mid and high cloud
cover remains further to the west, closer to Highway 75, but this
should continue to progress eastward with sunny skies areawide by
midday. North to northwest winds will increase later this morning
and continue through the day, with gusts topping out in the 35 to
40 mph range. A Wind Advisory will not be issued this morning, but
it might be close in parts of northeast Oklahoma. As the winds
increase and drier air moves into the region, fire weather concerns
across the northern third to half of Osage County will increase
accordingly, given the relative lack of rainfall there in the last
few days. ERC`s from 50 to 60 percent and elevated to near
critical category RFTI`s co-exist this afternoon in northwest
Osage County and a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for them
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

With all eyes on the potent storm system set to impact the area
late Monday and into early Tuesday, we`ll start there this morning
and then backtrack.

The 00Z model suite is overall in better agreement than at this
same time yesterday, with a positively-tilted upper level system
lifting across the Panhandles and western Kansas from Monday
evening through daybreak Tuesday. The attendant surface low will
follow a similar path, dragging the dryline eastward across
Oklahoma as it shifts east and northeast. Monday morning, a few
storms may develop across northeast Oklahoma in response to the
low level jet and associated warm advection. By far, the better
chance for storms and severe weather looks to occur Monday
evening and into early Tuesday morning, although there is a low
chance this window could shift to as early as late Monday
afternoon. Thunderstorms should develop to the west near the
dryline during the afternoon/evening and shift eastward through
the evening. The overall pattern and current forecast instability
and shear profiles are supportive of all modes of severe weather
in the region. Given the current timing, our area could be looking
at severe weather after dark, which is never a good thing. Stay
tuned the next several days, as the details become clearer and
more precise information can be provided.

Before the severe weather concerns early next week ... Tonight,
surface high pressure will slide across the region, leading to
drop off in wind speeds overnight and chilly temperatures. The
cooler locales in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas may
flirt with a freeze but at this point, it doesn`t look like
they`ll drop that far. Southerly winds and low-amplitude upper
level ridging will make a return Friday and continue through the
weekend, leading to well above normal temperatures. Parts of
northeast Oklahoma should approach the 90 degree mark on Sunday,
aided by a strong downslope low level wind component.

After the severe weather concerns ... Another storm system on the
heels of the Monday-Tuesday will keep low shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast into midweek. Details there remain
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as upper low shifts
eastward bringing the clouds and rain with it. The main story for
this TAF period will be the gusty northwesterly winds funneling
into the region early this morning and lasting through the
afternoon hours. Gusts of 25-30 knots will be prevalent across all
TAF sites today, before calming toward sunset as surface ridging
builds into the area.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  42  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  42  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  41  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  37  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  36  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  40  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  41  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  39  72  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  42  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  42  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04