Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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AXUS74 KTSA 051709
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-060515-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PAWNEE
AND CREEK COUNTIES...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER AN AUGUST WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS STATE LINE AT THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER HELPED TO IMPROVE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR
WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG...AND OTTAWA COUNTIES.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 2 SEPTEMBER
2014...EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF PAWNEE
AND CREEK COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF OSAGE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...WASHINGTON...TULSA...NORTHERN
ROGERS...NOWATA...CRAIG...FAR NORTHERN MAYES...NORTHWEST
OKMULGEE...OKFUSKEE...SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR...AND NORTHEASTERN
SEQUOYAH COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
WASHINGTON...FAR WESTERN MADISON...AND NORTHWEST CRAWFORD COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF
CRAIG...MAYES...ROGERS...TULSA...OKMULGEE...OKFUSKEE...CHOCTAW...
CHEROKEE...ADAIR AND SEQUOYAH COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AS
WELL AS BENTON...MADISON...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE ABOUT
EVERY TWO WEEKS AT WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 4 SEPTEMBER 2014 SHOWS VALUES OF AROUND 0.4 IN THE
D2/D3 AREA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY DRY/ AT 2
INCHES BELOW GROUND. LOWER VALUES OF 0.1 TO 0.6 EXISTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AT 10 INCHES BELOW GROUND...THESE VALUES
RANGED FROM 0.1 TO 0.3 IN THE D2/D3 AREA AS WELL AS HASKELL AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 24 INCHES
BELOW THE GROUND...THE FRACTIONAL WATER INDEX WAS 0.0 TO 0.2
ACROSS NORTHERN TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...PITTSBURG...LATIMER...FAR
NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND FAR WESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES.

AS OF 4 SEPTEMBER 2014...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER /ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THE UPPER ZONE IS
10 TO OVER 40 PERCENT FULL ACROSS THE D2/D3 AREA...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO 50 TO 110 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS
REPRESENTS A NEUTRAL TO MODERATE AGRICULTURALLY DRY AREA. UPPER
ZONE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WERE ONLY 1 TO 20
PERCENT FULL...OR LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. THIS REPRESENTS SEVERE TO EXTREME AGRICULTURALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE LOWER ZONE WAS 10 TO 30 PERCENT FULL FOR MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SLIGHT TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY DRY AREA. THESE VALUES RANGE
FROM 30 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 4 SEPTEMBER 2014 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 40 MM
/0.8 TO 1.6 INCHES/ ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.
DESPITE THE RAINFALL ON SEPTEMBER 1-2...THE OSAGE COUNTY AG
EDUCATOR SAID THE SOIL PROFILE IS SO DRY...IT WILL TAKE A LOT
MORE RAIN TO GET BACK TO AVERAGE. HE ALSO NOTED THAT AREA PONDS
DID NOT RESPOND MUCH TO THIS RAINFALL.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN BROUGHT 0.50 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS. FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNFORTUNATELY RECEIVED AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR
LESS. 3 TO 6 INCHES FELL ACROSS NORTHERN OSAGE...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG AND OTTAWA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS OCCURRED ON
SEPTEMBER 1-2.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.50
TO NEAR 8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CORRESPONDS TO NEAR
NORMAL TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS
BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE REMAINDER
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS ONLY RECEIVED 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. PORTIONS OF
PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...LE FLORE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES HAVE
RECEIVED THE LEAST...ONLY 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 4 SEPTEMBER
2014...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 42ND WETTEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 34TH
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 10TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR
THE LAST 60 DAYS ENDING 4 SEPTEMBER 2014...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
RANKS AS THE 32ND WETTEST PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE
35TH WETTEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 26TH WETTEST
PERIOD. FOR JANUARY 1-SEPTEMBER 4...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS
THE 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE
14TH DRIEST...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 29TH DRIEST. FOR
THE WATER YEAR-TO-DATE /OCTOBER 1-SEPTEMBER 4/...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD...EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 23RD DRIEST...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 39TH DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS/ TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL RAISE RAIN
CHANCES AND ONCE AGAIN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-40 AND NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2014 /ISSUED 31
AUGUST 2014/ INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID AUGUST 21 THROUGH
NOVEMBER 30 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE
FOLLOWING LAKES WERE REPORTING LEVELS GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT BELOW
THE CONSERVATION POOL AS OF SEPTEMBER 5: SKIATOOK LAKE 60
PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 82 PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 84
PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE 89 PERCENT...EUFAULA LAKE 94 PERCENT AND
BIRCH LAKE 96 PERCENT. THE FOLLOWING LAKES WERE REPORTING LEVELS
GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT ABOVE THE CONSERVATION POOL: HUDSON LAKE 105
PERCENT AND FT. GIBSON LAKE 104 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR BLACK BEAR CREEK AT PAWNEE...BIRD CREEK AT
AVANT...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT TULSA...MUDDY BOGGY CREEK NEAR
UNGER AND WAR EAGLE CREEK NEAR HINDSVILLE WERE BELOW NORMAL /IN
THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE/ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF 4
SEPTEMBER 2014. THE RED RIVER AT ARTHUR CITY WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
WITH VALUES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 3 OCTOBER 2014 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

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