Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
AXUS74 KTSA 202120
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-210930-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WAS ALSO A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 17 FEBRUARY
2015...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OSAGE...PAWNEE...NORTHERN CREEK...AND FAR WESTERN
TULSA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...CREEK...TULSA...FAR NORTHERN OKMULGEE...WESTERN
WAGONER...ROGERS...WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWEST NOWATA COUNTIES IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 19 FEBRUARY 2015 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.8-1.0 ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY
DRY/ AT 2...10 AND 24 INCHES BELOW GROUND. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 WERE OBSERVED IN PAWNEE AND SOUTHERN OSAGE
COUNTIES AT 10 INCHES BELOW GROUND.

AS OF 19 FEBRUARY 2015...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONGER TERM RAINFALL AND SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICITS. THE UPPER ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM
RAINFALL...IS OVER 40 PERCENT FULL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND CORRESPONDS TO 70-110 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWER ZONE WAS 10 TO 30
PERCENT FULL FOR MOST OF THE D1-D2 AREA IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WAS GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT
FULL. THESE LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES FOR THE D1-D2 AREA WERE 70
PERCENT TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. VALUES RANGED FROM 50
TO OVER 110 PERCENT OF NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE D1-D2 AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 19 FEBRUARY 2015 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 60 MM
/0.8 TO 2.4 INCHES/ ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES OCCURRED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THE
END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY WERE DRY ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTER
STORM BROUGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FEBRUARY 15-16. RAIN AND SNOW
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS RANGED FROM AROUND 0.10 TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS OCCURRED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS PRECIPITATION HELPED KEEP THE
AREA FROM FURTHER DEGRADATION IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT
OFFER MUCH IMPROVEMENT.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 INCH NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS STATE LINE TO NEAR 3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS REPRESENTS 25 TO 75 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
IN THE LONGER TERM...ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE ONLY RECEIVED 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE
NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 19 FEBRUARY
2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 24TH DRIEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 36TH
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 33RD DRIEST PERIOD. FOR
THE LAST 90 DAYS ENDING 19 FEBRUARY 2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 15TH DRIEST PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 44TH
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 29TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR
THE WATER YEAR-TO-DATE /1 OCTOBER 2014 - 19 FEBRUARY
2015/...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 45TH WETTEST ON
RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 44TH WETTEST...AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 31ST DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY MID
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 /ISSUED 19
FEBRUARY 2015/ INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FEBRUARY 19 THROUGH
MAY 31 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BUT IMPROVE.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE SKIATOOK
LAKE ELEVATION WAS 696.49 FEET ON 2/20/2015. THIS IS 4 FEET HIGHER
THAN ON 12/22/2014 BUT STILL NEAR THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE LAKE
WAS INITIALLY FILLED IN 1984. THE FOLLOWING LAKES WERE REPORTING
LEVELS GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL AS OF
FEBRUARY 20: SKIATOOK LAKE 52 PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 78
PERCENT...EUFAULA LAKE 78 PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 82
PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE 86 PERCENT AND BIRCH LAKE 89 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE MAJORITY OF
STREAMFLOWS WERE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 19 FEBRUARY 2015. THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR FLINT CREEK AT SPRINGTOWN AR WAS THE LOWEST VALUE
MEASURED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WERE
MEASURING STREAMFLOWS AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS /LESS THAN THE
10TH PERCENTILE/...BLACK BEAR CREEK AT PAWNEE...ARKANSAS RIVER
NEAR HASKELL...BIRD CREEK AT AVANT...CANEY RIVER NEAR
RAMONA...DEEP FORK NEAR BEGGS...KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR CLAYTON AND
NEAR ANTLERS...MUDDY BOGGY CREEK NEAR UNGER...RED RIVER AT ARTHUR
CITY AND WAR EAGLE CREEK NEAR HINDSVILLE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 20 MARCH 2015 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV


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