Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
AXUS74 KTSA 041942
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-050745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...SEVERE DROUGHT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHILE
MODERATE DROUGHT EXPANDED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 1 NOVEMBER 2016...SEVERE
/D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF CHOCTAW AND
SOUTHWEST PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PORTIONS OF TULSA...OKMULGEE...
MCINTOSH...WAGONER...MUSKOGEE...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...SEQUOYAH...HASKELL...LE
FLORE...LATIMER...PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER PARTS OF CREEK...OKFUSKEE...TULSA...WASHINGTON...ROGERS...
MAYES...DELAWARE AND ADAIR COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
BENTON...WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...MADISON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS
TUESDAY MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS
FALLEN AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS
OFFICE IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM
PRODUCT. LOCAL STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES
WHEN THE USDM INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ HOSTS RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS..AND OUTLOOKS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED
FRACTIONAL WATER INDEX FOR 3 NOVEMBER 2016 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.1 TO
0.4 /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY DRY/ AT 2 AND 4
INCHES BELOW GROUND ACROSS THE D2 AREA AND 0.1 TO 0.8 IN THE D1
AREA. THE SOIL WAS SLIGHTLY WETTER AT 10 INCHES BELOW THE
GROUND...BUT AT 24 INCHES VALUES WERE 0.1 TO 0.4 ACROSS LE
FLORE...CHOCTAW...PUSHMATAHA...PITTSBURG...MCINTOSH...TULSA...ROGERS...
EASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHERN NOWATA...AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES.

AS OF 4 NOVEMBER 2016...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER /ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER
ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM RAINFALL...IS 1 TO 20 PERCENT
FULL FOR THE D2-D1 AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 90 PERCENT TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL IN THE D1-D2 AREA. THE LOWER ZONE WAS 1 TO 30 PERCENT
FULL ACROSS MOST OF THE D2-D1 AREA...WHICH REPRESENTS SLIGHT TO
EXTREME HYDROLOGICALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THESE LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES
WERE 90 TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE D2-D1 AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS OF 3 NOVEMBER 2016 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE WAS
20-1000MM /0.79-3.9 IN/ BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE D2-D1 AREA.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS ENDING AT 7AM CDT 4 NOVEMBER 2016...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT FROM AROUND 0.25 TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN TO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PAWNEE COUNTY AND LIGHT RAIN
AROUND 0.50 INCHES OR LESS TO PORTIONS OF LE FLORE...CHOCTAW AND
HASKELL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHERN MADISON
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.10 INCHES
TO 10 INCHES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5-10 INCHES AFFECTED
THE COUNTIES THAT BORDER KANSAS...WITH 2-6 INCHES ELSEWHERE
NORTHWEST OF A MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE. PORTIONS OF
FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES ONLY RECEIVED 0.10-0.25 INCHES
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SAW 0.25 TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 3 NOVEMBER
2016...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 29TH WETTEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 38TH
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 11TH DRIEST. SINCE
AUGUST 6 /LAST 90 DAYS/...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 38TH
DRIEST...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 16TH DRIEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 35TH DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2016 /ISSUED 31
OCTOBER 2016/ INDICATES AN STRONGLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE
FOR BELOW MEDIAN RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW MEDIAN
RAINFALL ELSEWHERE.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 20-JANUARY 31
2017 INDICATES THAT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...SEVERAL OF
THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WERE OPERATING PLUS OR MINUS 5 PERCENT OF THE TOP OF THE
CONSERVATION POOL. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIRS WERE
OPERATING MORE THAN 5 PERCENT BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVEL AS
OF 31 OCTOBER 2016: HEYBURN LAKE 50 PERCENT...HUGO LAKE 76 PERCENT...EUFAULA
LAKE 79 PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 84 PERCENT...BIRCH LAKE 85
PERCENT...SKIATOOK LAKE 88 PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE 90 PERCENT AND
COPAN LAKE 92 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS OF 3 NOVEMBER 2016 ALONG THE
JAMES FORK NEAR HACKETT AND THE KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR ANTLERS.
STREAMFLOW WAS BELOW NORMAL ALONG FLINT CREEK AT SPRINGTOWN...THE
DEEP FORK RIVER NEAR BEGGS...THE MULBERRY RIVER NEAR
MULBERRY...THE KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR CLAYTON AND THE RED RIVER AT
ARTHUR CITY.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 5 DECEMBER 2016 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TSA/DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

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