Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
AXUS74 KTSA 101905
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-110715-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
205 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

...MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

DESPITE RECENT STORM SYSTEMS...A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CONTINUES TO SEE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE WORST DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN PAWNEE COUNTIES.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 7 APRIL
2015...EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN WESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHERN PAWNEE COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
OSAGE...PAWNEE...NORTHERN CREEK...AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...CREEK...TULSA...FAR NORTHERN
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...ROGERS...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...WESTERN
CRAIG...MAYES AND CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT OVER EASTERN CRAIG...WESTERN
OTTAWA...DELAWARE...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...FAR NORTHERN
MCINTOSH...OKMULGEE...SOUTHERN CREEK...AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND BENTON...WASHINGTON...MADISON...AND FAR
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
A NEW WATER RELEASE PLAN FOR SKIATOOK LAKE WAS IMPLEMENTED AT THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. THIS PLAN CHANGES THE BIRD CREEK DOWNSTREAM
MONITORING SITE FROM SPERRY TO OWASSO AND ALLOWS A 72-HOUR ROLLING
AVERAGE MEASUREMENTS TO DETERMINE MINIMUM FLOWS FOR WATER QUALITY.
THIS SHOULD BENEFIT THE LAKE BY REDUCING RELEASES. THIS WAS A JOINT
EFFORT BETWEEN THE USACE...INDIAN NATIONS COUNCIL OF
GOVERNMENTS...THE CITY OF TULSA...ODEQ...OKLAHOMA WATER RESOURCES
BOARD...USGS...AND THE OKLAHOMA DEPT OF WILDLIFE CONSERVATION.

THE USACE HAD TO CLOSE 2 OF ITS 7 BOAT RAMPS ON SKIATOOK LAKE DUE TO
LOW WATER LEVELS CAUSED BY THE DROUGHT...AND ADDED NEW BUOYS TO THE
WEST END OF THE LAKE TO INCREASE AWARENESS OF THE LOWER WATER DEPTH.
THE CROSSTIMBERS MARINA IS ALTERING OR RELOCATING 5 DOCKS /LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT OF THE MARINA/ DUE TO THE LOWER WATER LEVELS.

THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

WATER SUPPLY IMPACT.
ACCORDING TO LOCAL MEDIA...THE CITY LAKES FOR CLEVELAND AND PAWNEE
ARE LOW...AND HAVE BEEN FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW. PAWNEE OFFICIALS HAVE
PUT IN A NEW WELL THAT IS NOW SUPPLYING ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE
CITYS WATER. CLEVELAND OFFICIALS ARE PUMPING WATER FROM RANCH CREEK
INTO THEIR LAKE AND ENCOURAGING CONSERVATION BY INCREASING THE
RESIDENTIAL WATER FEES FOR THOSE WHO USE MORE THAN 5000 GALLONS PER
MONTH.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 9 APRIL 2015 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.7-1.0 ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY
DRY/ AT 2...10 AND 24 INCHES BELOW GROUND. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS OF 0.4 OR LESS WERE OBSERVED IN PAWNEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL OSAGE
COUNTIES AT 2 AND 10 INCHES BELOW GROUND.

AS OF 9 APRIL 2015...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER ZONE...WHICH
RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM RAINFALL...IS 20 TO OVER 40 PERCENT FULL
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND CORRESPONDS TO
50-110 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWER ZONE WAS
10 TO 30 PERCENT FULL FOR MOST OF THE D3 AREA IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WAS GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT
FULL. THESE LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES FOR THE D1-D3 AREA WERE 70
PERCENT TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. VALUES RANGED FROM 50
TO OVER 110 PERCENT OF NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE D1-D3 AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 9 APRIL 2015 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 80 MM /0.8
TO 3.1 INCHES/ EAST TO WEST FROM WASHINGTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS HAVE AFFECTED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAINFALL HAS REMAINED WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT THERE WERE NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN EVENTS.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 INCH IN
WESTERN OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES TO AROUND 7 INCHES ACROSS
IN CARROLL COUNTY. THIS REPRESENTS 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE D2-D3 AREA HAS ONLY RECEIVED 10 TO 50 PERCENT
OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST 30 DAYS. A FEW AREAS...INCLUDING
TULSA...SOUTHERN OTTAWA...NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHERN BENTON AND
CARROLL COUNTIES HAVE HAD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

IN THE LONGER TERM...ALL BUT NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY HAVE ONLY
RECEIVED 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 9 APRIL
2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 39TH DRIEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 39TH
WETTEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 44TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR
THE YEAR-TO-DATE ENDING 9 APRIL 2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 22ND DRIEST PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 37TH
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 39TH WETTEST PERIOD. FOR
THE WATER YEAR-TO-DATE /1 OCTOBER 2014 - 9 APRIL 2015/...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 44TH DRIEST ON RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
RANKS AS THE 43RD WETTEST...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 40TH
DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES AN
ABOVE MEDIAN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2015 /ISSUED 31 MARCH
2015/ INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO
CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID MARCH 19 THROUGH
JUNE 30 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BUT IMPROVE.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE SKIATOOK
LAKE ELEVATION WAS 696.77 FEET ON 4/10/2015. THIS IS 17.23 FEET
BELOW THE TOP OF THE CONSERVATION POOL. ONLY TWO LAKES WERE
REPORTING LEVELS BELOW 100 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOLS AS OF
APRIL 10: SKIATOOK LAKE 53 PERCENT AND BIRCH LAKE 88 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE MAJORITY OF
STREAMFLOWS WERE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
BASIN AND LOWER RED RIVER BASIN OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS OF 9 APRIL
2015. THE 7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT TULSA
AND NEAR HASKELL WERE THE LOWEST VALUES MEASURED FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BIRD CREEK AT AVANT WAS REPORTING STREAMFLOWS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL...LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE. THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WERE
MEASURING STREAMFLOWS AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS /10TH-24TH
PERCENTILE/...BLACK BEAR CREEK AT PAWNEE...ARKANSAS RIVER AT
RALSTON...CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA...VERDIGRIS RIVER NEAR
CLAREMORE...ILLINOIS RIVER GORE...FLINT CREEK AT SPRINGTOWN
AR...KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR CLAYTON AND NEAR ANTLERS AND THE RED RIVER
AT ARTHUR CITY.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 8 MAY 2015 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV


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