Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4

000
AXUS74 KTSA 231913
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-231000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2014

...A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

RAIN EVENTS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE INDICATED HIGHER MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...AREAWIDE RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
OBSERVED MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...A SMALL AMOUNT OF
SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH INCREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 20 JANUARY
2015...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OSAGE...SOUTHEAST PAWNEE...NORTHERN CREEK...AND FAR
WESTERN TULSA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...TULSA...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND FAR
NORTHERN OKMULGEE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER NOWATA...CRAIG...OTTAWA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...WAGONER...
CHEROKEE...OKMULGEE...MCINTOSH...OKFUSKEE...PITTSBURG...LATIMER...
HASKELL...PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...NORTHWEST SEQUOYAH...FAR EASTERN
TULSA...NORTHEAST OSAGE...SOUTHERN CREEK...AND MOST OF
WASHINGTON...OKMULGEE AND ADAIR COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
NORTHWEST BENTON...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 22 JANUARY 2015 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.8-1.0 ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY
DRY/ AT 2...10 AND 24 INCHES BELOW GROUND. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS OF
0.7 WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF ADAIR COUNTY AT 2 INCHES BELOW
GROUND.

AS OF 22 JANUARY 2015...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONGER TERM RAINFALL AND SOIL
MOISTURE DEFICITS. THE UPPER ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM
RAINFALL...IS OVER 40 PERCENT FULL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 90-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWER ZONE INDICATED MORE THAN 40 PERCENT FULL
FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A LARGE AREA OF 70-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF 100-150 OF NORMAL. THE D1-D2 AREAS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA REFLECT A LOWER ZONE LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND
ONLY 5-30 PERCENT FULL. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT TO SEVERE
HYDROLOGICALLY DRY AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 04 JANUARY 2015 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 40 MM
/0.8 TO 1.6 INCHES/ ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS HAVE
RESULTED IN PERIODIC FIRE DANGER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE
LATE DECEMBER THROUGH LATE JANUARY. MOST RAINFALL EVENTS THAT HAVE
TAKEN PLACE IN THIS TIME PERIOD OCCURED AT THE END OF DECEMBER INTO
EARLY JANUARY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MID PART OF
JANUARY. ON JANUARY 22ND...THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM ALONE PRODUCED
RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.50 TO ONE INCH TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.25 IN
LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO 0.80 ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A VERY TIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH AMOUNTS NOTED IMMEDIATELY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OK THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE FROM THERE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM 1.50 TO 3.25 INCHES.
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM 1.00 TO 2.40
INCHES.

THE LARGEST PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...20 TO 80 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WERE OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER AREA OF BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL...80 TO 100
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WAS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DID NOT SEE A RAINFALL DEFICIT DURING THE
LAST 30 DAYS...WITH AMOUNTS THAT FELL INTO 100 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL RANGE.

IN THE LONGER TERM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...40 TO 80 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE
LAST 90 DAYS.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 22 JANUARY
2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 13TH DRIEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 41ST
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 34TH WETTEST PERIOD. FOR
THE LAST 90 DAYS ENDING 22 JANUARY 2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 19TH DRIEST PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 33RD
DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 25TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR
JANUARY 23 2014-JANUARY 22 2015...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE
19TH DRIEST ON RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 29TH
DRIEST...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 39TH DRIEST.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A A
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS
IN THE EQUAL CHANCE CATEGORY.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2015 /ISSUED 15
JANUARY 2015/ INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH EQUAL CHANCE
INDICATED ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH EQUAL CHANCE
INDICATED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID JANUARY 15 THROUGH
APRIL 30 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY IN
THE D2 AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE SKIATOOK
LAKE ELEVATION WAS 696.93 FEET ON 01/23/2015  THE FOLLOWING LAKES
WERE REPORTING LEVELS GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT BELOW THE CONSERVATION
POOL AS OF JANUARY 23: SKIATOOK LAKE 53 PERCENT...HEYBURN LAKE 62
PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 80 PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 79 PERCENT
...EUFAULA LAKE 82 PERCENT...BIRCH LAKE 90 PERCENT...AND TENKILLER
LAKE 94 PERCENT

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR BLACK BEAR CREEK AT PAWNEE...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT
RALSTON...TULSA AND HASKELL...THE RED RIVER AT ARTHUR CITY AND FLINT
CREEK NEAR SPRINGTOWN WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH SUB 10TH
PERCENTILE VALUES OBSERVED AS OF 23 JANUARY 2015.

THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR WHITEFIELD...THE MUDDY BOGGY CREEK NEAR
UNGER...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR CHOTEAU AND COMMERCE...RANGED 10TH TO
24TH PERCENTILE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 20 FEBRUARY 2015 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.