Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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AXUS74 KTSA 111631
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-120430-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EXCEPT FOR
SOME MODERATE IMPROVEMENT OVER A FEW AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REMAIN GENERALLY
UNCHANGED WITH RESPECT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

FOR THE 14 DAY PERIOD FROM MARCH 27 THROUGH APRIL 10...EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN
GENERAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
44 /I-44/...HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...RESULTING IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THAT AREA.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ ISSUED 10 APRIL
2014...MOST OF PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE
CURRENTLY DESIGNATED AS BEING IN SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/.

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS /D1/ INCLUDE
MUCH OF CARROLL COUNTY...ALL OF BENTON COUNTY...AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES. THE
REMAINDER OF THOSE COUNTIES HAVE NO DROUGHT DESIGNATION.

IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST OVER
PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES...AND ALSO FAR SOUTHWEST LE FLORE
COUNTY. MODERATE DROUGHT ALSO EXISTS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
I-44 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ALL OR MOST OF OTTAWA...CRAIG...
NOWATA... ROGERS...WASHINGTON...TULSA...CREEK...AND OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WAS GENERALLY
DESIGNATED AS ONLY ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NO
DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR MOST OF PITTSBURG...MCINTOSH...AND LATIMER
COUNTIES. A DETAILED MAP CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNINGS...USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS
FALLEN AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THIS LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS
OFFICE IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED...AND SUPPLEMENTS THE NATIONAL USDM
PRODUCT. LOCAL STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED AS OFTEN AS EVERY TWO
WEEKS DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/
CONDITIONS OR WORSE...OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED UPDATES FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE ABOUT
EVERY TWO WEEKS AT WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO OCS...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 10 INCH
SOIL MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS. IN SOUTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY AND
MUCH OF PAWNEE COUNTY...THE FRACTIONAL WATER INDEX REMAINS AROUND
0.5 TO 0.7. ELSEWHERE THE INDEX WAS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0...WHERE 0.0
IS COMPLETELY DRY AND 1.0 IS COMPLETELY SATURATED.

BASED ON LONG TERM AVERAGES...THE ARKANSAS/RED BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER /ABRFC/ INDICATES SOIL MOISTURE IN THE FIRST 1 TO
3 FEET OF SOIL IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER SMALL
PORTIONS OF PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES...AND GENERALLY 50 TO 70
PERCENT OF NORMAL ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST OF I-44. ANOTHER SMALL AREA
OF LOW SOIL MOISTURE WAS IDENTIFIED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHOCTAW
COUNTY.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS
AS OF MARCH 31 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF ABOUT 1.5 TO
NEARLY 4 INCHES FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...RESPECTIVELY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED HERE ARE GENERAL AND MANY NOT BE APPLICABLE
TO ALL LOCATIONS DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL.

THE PAWNEE COUNTY EXTENSION AGENT INDICATES THAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
HAVING SOME IMPACTS ACROSS HIS COUNTY. WHEAT IS NOT GROWING AS IT
SHOULD AND IS SHORTER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PASTURES
ACROSS THE COUNTY COULD USE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NOW
THAT THE BERMUDA IS STARTING TO GREEN. FESCUE IS MOST AFFECTED AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS IT IS ALREADY TRYING TO GROW RAPIDLY. MOST
PONDS ARE ALSO LOW AND NEED MORE RAIN TO HELP THEM FILL.

THE OSAGE COUNTY EXTENSION AGENT ALSO INDICATES THAT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE HAVING SOME IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURE. PASTURES ARE
SLOWLY GREENING UP...BUT DELAYS MAY ALSO BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MARCH AND EARLY APRIL.
COOL SEASON GRASSES ARE COMING ALONG SLOWLY. PONDS ARE IN FAIR
SHAPE BUT STILL NEED RAIN TO FILL THEM. CORN AND SOYBEANS WILL BE
PLANTED SOON AND COULD USE MORE MOISTURE THAN IS CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON RECEIVING GOOD SPRING RAINS OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS HAVING ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. LOW WATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
STOCK PONDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN MANY AREAS. THIS IS ALSO AN
INDICATION OF THE LACK OF DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE. AS LONG AS RAIN
OCCURS ON A REGULAR BASIS...SERIOUS PROBLEMS MAY BE AVOIDED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE GROUND TO
SUSTAIN ANY PROLONGED LACK OF RAIN.

FIRE IMPACTS...
A BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR CRAIG COUNTY AT THIS TIME. NO OTHER
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
FROM EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS FALLEN SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-44...RANGING FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES TO AROUND 7 INCHES
IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...FROM PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES TO NOWATA
COUNTY...RAINFALL HAS ONLY BEEN BETWEEN ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES.

THE OCS TRACKS YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL. FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH APRIL
10...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA..NORTHWEST OF I-44 IS 20 TO 40 PERCENT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 40 AND 80 PERCENT OF
NORMAL RAIN...WITH THE LEAST DEFICITS IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A BROAD GENERAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY...APRIL 13...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LESSER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE
INCH NORTHWEST OF I-44. HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44...WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE CPC EXPECTS NEARLY NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM
MID TO LATE APRIL. FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL THROUGH JUNE...THERE
ARE NO CLEAR INDICATORS OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL OUTLOOK THROUGH THE
END OF JUNE INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE DRIEST PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE D2 DROUGHT EXISTS...AND SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

MOST ALL OF THE LAKES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ARE AT 100 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOLS AS OF APRIL 10. THE
ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE SKIATOOK LAKE WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 70 PERCENT
FULL...AND BIRCH LAKE WHICH IS ABOUT 90 PERCENT FULL. BOTH OF
THESE LAKES ARE IN OSAGE COUNTY...WHERE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY EXIST.

ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...MOST
STREAMS ARE NEAR NORMAL. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...QUITE A FEW
STREAMS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL RIVERS
ARE RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THESE INCLUDE BLACKBEAR CREEK IN
PAWNEE COUNTY...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT BOTH TULSA AND HASKELL...AND
THE RED RIVER AT ARTHUR CITY TEXAS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 2 MAY 2014...OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REAL TIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

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