Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN THIS AREA
USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE
WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS
OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF
THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
EXTREME RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED AT THE END OF DECEMBER. ALL BUT THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES RECEIVED 125 TO
AROUND 200 PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES RECEIVED 75 TO
100 PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 60
DAYS...DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 25 TO AROUND 75
PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE LAST 60 DAYS.

SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS
100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 412 IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE VALUES RANGED FROM AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOIL PROFILE ARE BEGINNING TO
DRY OUT NORTH OF HWY 412 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STREAM AND RIVER
DISCHARGES WERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE GRAND-NEOSHO RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS CURRENTLY
VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM...IN THE
RED RIVER SYSTEM AND IN THE UPPER WHITE RIVER SYSTEM. THE
RESERVOIRS IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM WERE OPERATING NEAR THE
TOP OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOLS AND HAVE APPROXIMATELY 95 PERCENT
OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE RED
RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 98 PERCENT. 88 PERCENT OF DESIGN
FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS AVAILABLE IN THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PORTION OF THE WHITE RIVER BASIN.

THE 18 FEBRUARY 2016 CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SPRING /MAR-
APR-MAY/ OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF 1 MARCH 2016 INDICATES NO DROUGHT OR
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE CPC SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF 18
FEBRUARY 2016 INDICATES NO DEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS/LAKES LINK UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER SECTION OR THE RIVER
FORECASTS LINK UNDER THE FORECASTS SECTION.

$$



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