Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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838
FLUS44 KTSA 121104
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER DANGERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA MIXING
INTO A WINTRY MIX FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TO A LIGHT RAIN
CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST PRECIPITATION TO BECOME ALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE
REGION. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REINED AS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY FOR EXACT LOCATIONS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. STAY UP TO DATE
WITH LATEST FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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