Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 281758
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017


...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mainly between Highway 412 and the I 40 corridor.
ONSET...Late Afternoon or Early Evening.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late this afternoon or early this evening.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...In a zone between I-44 and a McAlester to
                            Fort Smith line.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.


DISCUSSION...
Severe storm chances will increase tonight
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Very large hail
to baseball size, damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated
tornado are possible.

Little to no development is expected for the remainder afternoon across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, storms are
expected to fire by late in the day to the west of the region near a
dryline. Storms are expected to move  into portions of the region this
evening...along and to the north of a surface warm front.
The storms to our west will gradually grow upscale into lines or clusters which will sweep east during
the overnight. At that time, the main severe threat will transition from large hail to damaging winds.
Storms may gradually weaken toward daybreak.

Additionally...the threat for flash flooding will exist across northeast Oklahoma
tonight as multiple rounds of storms impact the aforementioned area beginning this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall in excess of 2 inches may lead to some flash flooding.
A flash flood watch will be in effect from 7pm this evening through Sunday morning.
See /OKCFFATSA/ for details.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
Saturday and Saturday night as a powerful upper level storm system
develops to our west and interacts with a frontal boundary draped
over the region. Storm total rainfall in the 4 to 7 inch range is
expected, with locally heavier amounts likely across much of northeast
and east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas thru Sunday.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and significant flooding of area rivers and lakes. Locations
downstream from dams could see significant flooding as water is
released from the flooded lakes.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary and approaching upper system
will continue to be the focus for  storms with severe potential
during the afternoon and evening hours. The severe weather
threat...and heavy rainfall threat will will come to an end from
west to east as a cold front sweeps across the region late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Towards the middle of next week...another storm system will bring
the potential for more storms to the region. This system is expected
to push through too quickly to bring significant rainfall. Organized
severe weather is not expected either.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to follow the latest updates and forecasts regarding the
expected hazardous weather that will affect much of the area this
weekend.


weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$


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