Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 252217
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
517 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING THIS
EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA..WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ROUGHLY EXTEND FROM ENID OKLAHOMA...WITH INCREASING CONCENTRATION
SOUTHEAST TO CLAYTON OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH TO PARIS TEXAS.  THESE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THROUGH THE
EVENING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION.  THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND...AND LARGE...LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL
10 PM.


ADDITIONALLY...THE WET SOILS WILL MAKE DOWNED TREES A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MOVE INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.  THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS PASSES YOUR
LOCATION.

AN EQUALLY DANGEROUS THREAT WILL BE THE RAPID ONSET FLASH
FLOODING...WHICH IS EXPECTED AS THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST.  RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND WILL
RESULT IN RAPID WATER RISES...AND PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD BE COMPLETED.  WATER WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MANY ROADS MAY REMAIN FLOODED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
ONLY WORSEN ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.  LATER FORECASTS
WILL REFINE THE LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$




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