Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 260958
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016


...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 69.
ONSET...AFTER 5 PM

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORMS....SOME SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

A SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR INTERSTATE 35 BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH COVERAGE OF
STORMS LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE EVENT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...DETAILS
CONCERNING STORM INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION REMAIN IN
QUESTION. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
STORMS MOVE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND COVERAGE INCREASES AS
ANTICIPATED...THE TORNADIC RISK WILL DIMINISH AS STORMS BECOME
MORE LINEAR. AT THAT TIME...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND WHETHER IT WILL BE A
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CARRY A LIMITED TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.


THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE. AS AN UPPER WAVE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES...A LIMITED TO ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND THIS WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD HAVE SEVERE
WEATHER PREPARATIONS COMPLETED AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY FLOODING ARE SET TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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