Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 232158
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016


...INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
  HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AND
WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSING A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY...WITH
THE DRY LINE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DAYTIME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES COULD INITIATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CAP STRENGTH MAY PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF A STORM
DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ALL SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY IF A
STORM DEVELOPS.

THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS DRY LINE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AND MOVE EAST. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED BUT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER THURSDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
FLOODING COULD BECOME A ISSUE AROUND THIS TIME GIVEN THE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REVIEW
SAFETY PLANS AND BEGIN TO MAKE SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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