Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 191813
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
113 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ANYTIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ELEVATED.
ONSET...PRIMARILY LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  A LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CONTINUED LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  CURRENTLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND AREAS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ARE FAVORED THE HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST...
WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW QUICK ONSET OF FLOODING WITH
ANY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY.  A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






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