Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 020232
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
932 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IS VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN
WIND SHEAR CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING SEVERE UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE
ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD FAR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND CONSIDERABLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE THAT RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT THIS DAILY
POTENTIAL. LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

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