Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 101822
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
120 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
120 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...This Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...This Evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
day, mainly associated with daytime heating. Any storms through
the afternoon are expected to remain below severe limits.

The threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall will increase this
evening as a complex of storms moves across much of eastern Oklahoma
and parts of western Arkansas this evening and overnight. A few
damaging wind gusts and heavy rain are the primary threats, although
there will be a very limited tornado risk across northeast Oklahoma
with this activity. The overall severe weather and heavy rain threat
should diminish overnight as the storms move southeast.

A few locations across southeast Oklahoma may see heat index
values around 100 degrees this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily rounds of thunderstorms are expected from Friday into the
weekend. While the details remain difficult to pinpoint, many
areas will see 3 to 5 inches of rain between Thursday and
Saturday night, with local amounts possibly approaching 10 inches.
At this time it appears the greatest potential for the heaviest
rain will be focused across east central Oklahoma although the
axis of heavy rain will likely shift as this system evolves and
the situation becomes more clear. The rain is likely to be
widespread enough to cause rises on a number of area creeks and
streams, with some local flash flooding possible at locations
receiving the fastest rain rates.

The threat for additional locally heavy rainfall will likely
continue in some areas through mid week as the pattern remains
favorable. Flooding of main stem rivers will ultimately become a
concern should forecast rainfall amounts materialize.

There will also be at least limited severe weather potential with
any organized storm complexes, mainly in the form of damaging
wind gusts.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should closely follow later forecasts as details
are refined and be prepared for at least some severe weather and
flooding potential from Thursday evening through the weekend.
Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued for parts of the
forecast area, perhaps as early as tonight.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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