Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 161829
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
129 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
129 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE STORM AND FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LIMITED THREAT OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AFTER 7 PM
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND AFTER 11 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TORNADOES...HAIL IN THE GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL
RANGE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAY POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF TULSA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF TILL EVENING AS
AFTERNOON STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE PACIFIC FRONT OUT WEST MAKE
THEIR WAY EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL
INTO BANDS AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD PERSIST. IF SO...VERY
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND STRONG
TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
BANDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SQUALL LINE TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A LESSER RISK
DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BANDS OF
STORMS...AND WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT RECENTLY BY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD RISK
EXISTS...AND WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 LATER
ON TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY ALONG A STALLING PACIFIC
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPS
OVER THE SAME REGION AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S STORMS...AND IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL DROPS OFF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS GOING TO CREATE ISSUES IN SOME SPOTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

LACY




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