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000
FLUS44 KTSA 171030
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
507 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF VERY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER MILE
OR LESS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY EVENING
AND LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...
AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MILES AN HOUR SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS RAMP UP GREATLY SUNDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO RESULT IN ALL MODES OF POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS
LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

TORNADOES...HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 80 MILES AN HOUR WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
ENSURE SEVERE WEATHER ACTION/CONTINGENCY PLANS ARE UP TO DATE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$