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000
FLUS44 KTSA 150955
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL. MOST OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...
INCLUDING SPECIFIC TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$