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000
FLUS44 KTSA 181802
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO MCALESTER.
ONSET...AFTER 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY LATE EVENING OR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SHOULD THE STORMS REMAIN
SEVERE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...EXTREMELY
LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY TORNADOES
THAT DO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME VIOLENT.

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
STRONGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY.  THE FAVORED LOCATION ON MONDAY WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY
THAT A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIME FOCUS FOR TORNADIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD IT REMAINED DEFINED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FAVORED ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS APPEAR SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORED
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.  THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.

THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING STORMS...WILL RAISE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRESENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  ADDITIONALLY...
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...ANY
DAMAGE RESPONSE SHOULD BE CLOSELY COORDINATED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$