Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 171829
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
129 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-180630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
129 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS TURNING MORE TOWARD
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXIT THE REGION. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD AGAIN BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS AND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE REGION. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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