Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 011745
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH INCREASED THREAT TOMORROW...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND IN
KANSAS ITSELF. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AFFECTING PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE. A LIMITED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...PUSHING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY ALSO
OCCUR...MAINLY IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER.

QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$





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