Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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392
FLUS44 KTSA 281040
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
540 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
540 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...East central and southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester line.
ONSET...After 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester line.
ONSET...After 7 PM.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Far east central Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Severe weather potential will increase tonight as storms move into
the region from the southwest, in multiple rounds. Instability
will be greater across east central and southeast Oklahoma, where
the greatest severe threat lies. The latest short term guidance
suggests that storms will form into line segments by the time they
reach eastern Oklahoma tonight. This would suggest that damaging
winds will be the primary threat, with marginally severe hail
possible with any embedded stronger cells. While non-zero, the
tornado threat is very low.

Portions of northeast Oklahoma could receive locally heavy
rainfall as a result of being affected by multiple rounds of
thunderstorms tonight. Widespread 1 to 2 inch rains are forecast
along and west of highway 75 in northeast and east central
Oklahoma, with locally heavier amounts possible. This could cause
some localized flooding.

Some patchy fog is possible mainly in the lower Arkansas river
valley of far east central Oklahoma where skies have remained
clear. This fog should burn off shortly after sunrise.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY thru MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

After the late night and early morning storms weaken and move
east, the atmosphere across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas should have time to destabilize some by Wednesday afternoon
ahead of the surface low and cold front. Cooling temps aloft with
approaching upper low and favorable shear suggest that very large
hail is possible, along with damaging winds, especially if storms
congeal into line segments. A tornado threat could materialize
near the surface low and warm front across northeast OK and
northwest Arkansas during the afternoon.

Thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday night into Thursday
underneath the upper low. Since instability will be much less by
this time, severe weather is not expected. However, some small
hail will be possible with any of the storms.

Another upper level storm system will bring another round of
thunderstorms for next weekend into early next week in this
continued active weather pattern.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy



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