000
FLUS44 KTSA 200408
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
                     POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION...AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRESENT FROM
THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...HIGH INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...EXTREMELY
LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVOLVES ON MONDAY. MOST LIKELY THE HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER BY
THIS TIME HOWEVER...SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT BEST.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. FIRST RESPONDERS AND DAMAGE RESPONSE WILL NEED TO BE IN
CLOSE COORDINATION WITH THE ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$