000
FLUS44 KTSA 211025
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD TODAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO OZARK LINE. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILTY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK AND WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$