000
FLUS44 KTSA 202206
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
506 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013


...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING...RISK FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ONSET...ONGOING.

 AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
 AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA .

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF I-40.


DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDES NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE
44 CORRIDOR. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
CARRY A A HIGH RISK OF LONG TRACK TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
AND AND WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH.


ADDITIONALLY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING RISK TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT
TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THESE AREAS MAY BE COMMON. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 7 INCH AMOUNTS
WILL QUICKLY HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND WILL
AGAIN INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MOST OF THE WEATHER HAS REMAINED WEST OF THOSE
LOCATIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS.



WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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