Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 192151
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...EARLY EVENING.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ELEVATED.
ONSET...PRIMARILY LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW QUICK ONSET
OF FLOODING WITH ANY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY.  A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






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