Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 271907
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
107 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
107 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
 AREA...East of a Miami to McAlester line.
 ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A limited potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of far southeast Oklahoma and overnight across parts
of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph may occur with a few stronger
thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms already developing along a northward moving warm
front positioned just south of the Red River. These storms are
expected to move northeastward with time, crossing the Red River
into southeast Oklahoma by early this afternoon.

Additional elevated thunderstorms could develop overnight as a
low level jet increases across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
   High Fire Danger Potential.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms continue to appear likely Tuesday afternoon
and into Tuesday night.

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The afternoon thunderstorm
development is the most uncertain of the two rounds of
thunderstorms that are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. If the
afternoon storms materialize, these will likely be supercellular,
with a large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornado threat.

Late Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday morning,
thunderstorms are likely to develop across eastern Oklahoma along
a cold front and move into western Arkansas. Damaging winds will
be the primary severe weather threat, but there will also be a low
chance of isolated, short-lived tornadoes with stronger cells
within the expected squall line.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm threats on Tuesday, an
elevated risk of rapid fire spread will exist during the afternoon
hours, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Southerly
winds will gust in the 25 to 35 mph range in conjunction with
near record temperatures and continued very dry fuels.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$



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