Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 110241
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
941 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
941 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop through the evening and
into the overnight in the vicinity of a cold front across parts of
Kansas. These thunderstorms will move to the southeast toward
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas after midnight. The
heavy rain and flash flood potential will be increased with these
thunderstorms, especially if heavy rains affect areas that
received a lot of rain earlier this evening. The strongest storms
may also pose a risk of damaging winds, especially if an
organized complex develops.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily rounds of thunderstorms are expected from Friday into the
weekend. While the details remain difficult to pinpoint, many
areas will see 3 to 5 inches of rain between Thursday and
Saturday night, with local amounts possibly approaching 10 inches.
At this time it appears the greatest potential for the heaviest
rain will be focused across east central Oklahoma although the
axis of heavy rain will likely shift as this system evolves and
the situation becomes more clear. The rain is likely to be
widespread enough to cause rises on a number of area creeks and
streams, with some local flash flooding possible at locations
receiving the fastest rain rates.

The threat for additional locally heavy rainfall will likely
continue in some areas through mid week as the pattern remains
favorable. Flooding of main stem rivers will ultimately become a
concern should forecast rainfall amounts materialize.

There will also be at least limited severe weather potential with
any organized storm complexes, mainly in the form of damaging
wind gusts.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should closely follow later forecasts as details
are refined and be prepared for at least some severe weather and
flooding potential from tonight through the weekend. Flash Flood
Watches will likely be issued for parts of the forecast area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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