Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 201014
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
514 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017


...Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Threat and Locally Heavy Rainfall
Saturday Evening into Saturday Night...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon Southeast Oklahoma. This Evening Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late Morning.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will become possible this afternoon across
Southeast Oklahoma as moisture continues to push northward ahead
of an upper level disturbance moving into the Plains. Additional
thunderstorm chances will be possible this evening and overnight
tonight across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the
disturbance moves through the region. Severe weather potentials
are not expected with this activity.

Also...ahead of the upper level disturbance and the main cold
front forecast to move into the region Saturday evening...gusty
southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range will be possible across
Northeast Oklahoma today. Across the rest of the region...gusts
in the 15 to 20 mph range will be possible. Breezy southerly winds
are expected to continue overnight in advance of the approaching
cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
   Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west and northwest
Saturday afternoon along the cold front and move into Northeast
Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening hours and
spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Saturday
night. An enhanced severe thunderstorm risk is forecast with
damaging winds...large hail and also a low tornado potential
during the initial storm development. Late evening and overnight
Saturday...storms are forecast to become more linear and
transition to mainly a damaging wind threat as the front moves
through the region. The front looks to be exiting Southeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early Sunday morning.

In addition to the severe potentials...widespread heavy rainfall
in the one and a half to three inch range with locally higher
amounts in the 4 to near 5 inch range will be possible through
Saturday night across the region. These amounts could lead to
flash flooding and or river flooding.

Behind the exiting front...breezy northerly winds look to continue
Sunday with cooler and drier conditions for the first half of next
week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Persons attending outdoor events Saturday evening should prepare
for thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather. The
overall tornado threat will continue to be assessed as additional
data becomes available as the event approaches.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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