Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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781
FLUS44 KTSA 251000
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRENGTHENING CAP TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAR THE
WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR INTERSTATE 35 BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SITUATED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY
ALSO BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS THAT MAY
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE DETAILS CONCERNING EXACTLY WHERE STORMS
DEVELOP AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE REMAIN IN QUESTION...FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LIMITED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SEVERE STORMS.

A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REVIEW
SAFETY PLANS AND MAKE SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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