Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 191813
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
113 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
113 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and especially south of I-44.
ONSET...Mid to late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Mid afternoon.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of I-44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma, especially south of I-44 and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Mid to late afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma, especially south of I-44 and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Mid to late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening along and south of I-40 across Southeast Oklahoma into
West Central Arkansas. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats. Isolated tornadoes are possible where storms interact
with lingering boundaries, or with any bowing line segments late
this afternoon and into the evening.

Storms are expected to form along and east of the current band of
convection that stretches from Northeast Oklahoma down into North
Central Texas, where the air is most unstable. This activity will
gradually grow upscale into one or more clusters or lines as it
lifts northeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas this
afternoon and tonight. Other more scattered storms may develop
near a developing surface low or trough and ahead of the cold
front across North Central Oklahoma either late this afternoon or
into the evening and will move across generally far Northeast
Oklahoma this evening.

There were multiple swaths of 2 to 4 inch rains across Eastern
Oklahoma from last night`s convection. Depending on how convection
evolves today and whether this convection tracks over these same
areas, there will be a flash flood threat. There may be some river
flooding that occurs as well, but this will depend on the basins
where the heavy rains fall. At this time, the heavier rains are
more likely to fall generally south of I-44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the
day Saturday. The next storm system will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms, but only a
limited risk of severe weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy


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