Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 101046
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
446 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2017

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL FUEL A LIMITED RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD...ESPECIALLY
AS LOWER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORM
                          POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL RESULT.

SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
SLOW MOVING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 CONTINUE TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH AND EAST DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FREEZING LINE
EVENTUALLY SETS UP. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS COULD
EXACERBATE THE POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL RESULTING FROM ICE
ACCUMULATION.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
STORM TOTALS LIKELY...WILL AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL DEVELOP. DESPITE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AMOUNTS OF THIS NATURE COULD LEAD TO
BOTH RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING. IT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN OR VERY NEAR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. CONSIDER
BEGINNING LONGER DURATION PREPARATIONS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AND EVALUATE FORECAST TRENDS PRIOR TO BEGINNING
SHORTER DURATION PREPARATIONS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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